OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

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- Horse Racing (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/forumdisplay.php?f=5)

- - Form Factor Ratings (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=21357)

Shaun

10th April 2011 03:40 PM

How best to take advantage of these selections?

At the moment i am dutching for a profit, this means equal profit no matter who wins, sounds simple enough, but what if we have a situation like Black Caviars race where the prices have a huge difference or take today's race Wangaratta race 6 the 2 horses were priced at $3.90 and $17.50 dutching these would return me about $20 profit splitting the stake would return me $9.50 and $77.50 profit.

Big difference on the longer priced runner, is there more options i was thinking maybe bet in units depending on price, your thoughts.

wesmip1

10th April 2011 04:49 PM

The best way to do this is to work out your confidence on each selection and assign odds to each.

Based on the estimated odds (and assuming they are better then the market) you kelly stake them (or half kelly to be safer).

Shaun

10th April 2011 05:16 PM

That's not a bad idea, since these ratings are created by my excel sheet and i have no emotional input i could use the rated price but i have no confidence in the section that creates the price so i might convert the strike rate in to the price and kelly stake to that.

Shaun

10th April 2011 07:22 PM

Code:


Cranbourne		Race	6
5. Old Guard		$3.35
1. Reassemble		$3.57
Narrogin		Race	8
1. Lie In Wait		$3.54
7. Movie World		$4.38
Port Lincoln		Race	4
2. Out For Lunch	$2.50 2.75
5. Hightom		$5.65
Port Lincoln		Race	5
2. Roll On Bai		$3.06
4. Dieselfuel		$4.27 3.69
Port Lincoln		Race	8
7. Yarterbery		$2.49
10. Bracken Blue	$6.68
Sunshine Coast		Race	3
1. Ima Joker		$3.45
4. Belletrist		$4.75
Wangaratta		Race	6
6. Nice And Neat	$2.64
8. Private Jeune	$6.39 15.93
Wangaratta		Race	7
17. Lordoftheparrots	$2.68
5. Becqu Adoree		$7.14

Result 3/8
SR 37.5%
Outlay 16
Return 22.37
Profit 6.37

Shaun

11th April 2011 09:54 AM

Code:


Ararat			Race	3
3. Mister Farinelli	$1.89
8. Sigidas		$6.93
Armidale		Race	7
1. Prussian Secret	$2.13
3. Starlist		$6.98
Armidale		Race	8
11. Usain Prince	$3.66
4. Lohan		$3.74

Shaun

11th April 2011 07:47 PM

Ended up with a 2 unit bet today for a loss

Shaun

12th April 2011 10:21 AM

Code:


Echuca			Race	6
9. Tequila High		$2.03
4. Distillery		$7.29
Townsville		Race	2
4. Foursreal		$3.23
2. Carvelon		$5.26
Townsville		Race	4
3. Matiya's Pride	$2.61
1. Elegant Roi		$6.25
Townsville		Race	6
2. Guru			$3.52
5. Apache Pup		$5.02

Shaun

13th April 2011 11:40 AM

Code:


Echuca			Race	6
9. Tequila High		$2.03
4. Distillery		$7.29
Townsville		Race	2
4. Foursreal		$3.23
2. Carvelon		$5.26
Townsville		Race	4
3. Matiya's Pride	$2.61
1. Elegant Roi		$6.25
Townsville		Race	6
2. Guru			$3.52
5. Apache Pup		$5.02 $4.82

Result 1/4
SR 25%
Outlay 8
Return 4.82
Loss $3.18

Shaun

13th April 2011 11:41 AM

Code:


Balaklava		Race	5
1. Success Dostta	$2.43
11. Goldstinger		$7.30
Balaklava		Race	7
12. Conduction		$2.65
5. She's Good As Gold	$6.18
Canterbury		Race	1
1. Merge		$2.09
7. Jade Tiger		$7.32
Sandown-Lakeside	Race	6
15. Eternal Sunshine	$1.83
10. Count The Diamonds	$8.91
Sandown-Lakeside	Race	7
5. Princess Narine	$3.12
4. Miss Bindi		$3.67
Sandown-Lakeside	Race	8
10. Mr Make Believe	$1.98
9. Akihito		$7.00

Shaun

13th April 2011 04:26 PM

Code:


Balaklava		Race	5
1. Success Dostta	$2.43 $5.72
11. Goldstinger		$7.30
Balaklava		Race	7
12. Conduction		$2.65 $4.48
5. She's Good As Gold	$6.18
Canterbury		Race	1
1. Merge		$2.09
7. Jade Tiger		$7.32
Sandown-Lakeside	Race	6
15. Eternal Sunshine	$1.83
10. Count The Diamonds	$8.91
Sandown-Lakeside	Race	7
5. Princess Narine	$3.12
4. Miss Bindi		$3.67 $3.13
Sandown-Lakeside	Race	8
10. Mr Make Believe	$1.98
9. Akihito		$7.00

Result 3/6
SR 50%
Outlay 12
Return 13.33
Profit $1.33

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