on a more serious note, to your rules I would suggest also looking for a bit market support on the horses that meet the criteria, not necessarily the fav but a bit of specking at odds can be a good sign

what you have listed is not too much different from what I do during the major carnivals each year, trying to identify those that being set for 1 or 2 races & actually have a hope of winning through improving form/fitness

I’m assuming that a horse which hasn’t won in it’s first 3 or 4 runs still has some improvement left in it and / or is being set for a certain race. Big assumption really …..

The main point I’m trying to make here is that we need to look for something / anything that may indicate the horse still has some measurable improvement left. Measurable because of the number of runs this time in that can be evaluated.

I'm keen to test this but I just have not had any time to get into the formguides in the past few days.

Quick question. How do I spot a spell in a formguide? Is it a break in racing dates of 4 weeks or more?

It's usually got a small 's' mixed up in the runs which indicates a spell.

This system has been lovingly created and purposely exclusing some of the exposed myths.

These are:

• weight (over-rated !),
• days between runs - although a case can be made for 7 days and 14 days with a couple other filters thrown in to demonstrate that the horse is in form and fit, it is statistically flawed to place more credence on less than 21 days than more than 21 days and so on.
• course and distance usually have a negative impact on POT

Barny, excellent post.

Couple of points for your comment.

(a) Perhaps consider 3, 4, and 5th runs from a spell, rather than runs 4 & 5

(b) you indicated that the shorter races are harder to assess. Maybe so, but I would run your system with maybe 1400's and 1600's only because I believe races over this become farcical in their tempo with dodgy outcomes!

(c) you said that course and distance have a negative impact on POT. Are you saying that the horse for consideration should have form at the distance and/or track.

(d) do you give any weighting to on pace runners?

Thanks for any replies

thanks peakster

Couple of points for your comment.

(a) Perhaps consider 3, 4, and 5th runs from a spell, rather than runs 4 & 5



I cannot find a logical improver 3rd up. It’s too early for any sort of pattern, no matter how subtle that pattern is I’m looking for, to say “This is the race!”

(b) you indicated that the shorter races are harder to assess. Maybe so, but I would run your system with maybe 1400's and 1600's only because I believe races over this become farcical in their tempo with dodgy outcomes!



A lot of the improvers win at longer than 1600. I see where you’re coming from, and prior to this forum, I had a 4th up system LSW that performed best at exactly 1400.

(c) you said that course and distance have a negative impact on POT. Are you saying that the horse for consideration should have form at the distance and/or track.



I like leaving out C/D because I think that the POT is reduced by more than the advantage the horse has over C/D next to it’s name.


(d) do you give any weighting to on pace runners?



I like on-pace runners but no. I want this system to look for the subtleties, those bits of information that don’t jump off the page at you. I want to “see” what the trainer is doing, and leave it up to him / her.

Thanks for any replies



The dumb bit I did put in was to give the nag a couple of runs ….. scratch that !

an example
 

I assume you are betting on this so why can you post a selection from it and explain why that selection came to be ?

Not too much time ATM. Form of 642 is self explanatory.


Form of 502 could qualify is the "0" was in a higher graded race than it's first up run. You could argue that a 12th in a field a couple of grades up from it's first up run could be an improvement from it's first up 5th ..... then it's third up run of 2nd is obvious. OK ..... so we've got a horse that's improved from it's first up run of 5th in it's next two runs ..... and has probably been MISSED by the market and all systems ..... an EDGE ?!?!

Look at the Albury Cup winner too ..... the only possible selection.

Gotta Go