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woof43 21st April 2011 08:49 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by moeee
I don't get it Woof43

Looking at your permutations and the Size of the Wagers, it appears that your most favoured selections are 8,4,1.
Yet the permutations of 1 - 4 - 8 and 1 - 8 - 4 appear to be ranked well down the list , if they appear at all.

How does that work?

The first thing you want to do is only invest on positive expectations.

As I posted just recently in another thread here, I classify the race on the Favourite and what was the major factors or combination of major /minor factors that determined that Favourite, then the seperation between it and the 2nd Fav.
I then have my subset of data
Remember at the most we have only about 15 factors for the dogs. and how they punters play each of those combinations is so predictable, I just compile all the past results and I know the avg payoffs or positive/negative expectations for each combination by rank order.

So you would have seen in that race what were the Factors in determining it a Fav.

But as you would have seen in that other thread the gold was laid out, but it was too difficult to do?
Don't keep trying to handicap better, you'll improve .5 of a percent, improve your wagering improve 100%, learn to do your database, compile your results create sub sets of data based on a few Factors,
I know you have spreadsheets to do this automatically

Give up the notion of betting only your top selection (especially when over time its a negative expectation) and your halfway there.

moeee 21st April 2011 08:57 PM

?????

Next time I ask you something Woof , Just Ignore me :(

woof43 22nd April 2011 10:38 PM

Meadows Race 9
 
Split times
1 5.120
2 5.153
3 5.214
4 5.245
5 5.088
6 5.124
7 5.204
8 5.220
This is an interesting race, with the #2 early Fav. its had approx 71 starts, starts 69 and 71 are its best races, seems strange but then considering it's past "form".it is most probably expected.
I have the #5 and #1 leading followed closely by the #6.
I'm expecting the #1 to improve it's had 2 starts since a spell, raced heavy, floundered out of the boxes both starts and finished both races off ok.

Box Payoff Rank
1 $3.54 1
2 $6.69 4
3 $22.94 5
4 $58.75 8
5 $3.63 2
6 $5.59 3
7 $55.13 7
8 $28.65 6

woof43 22nd April 2011 10:40 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by moeee
I don't get it Woof43

Looking at your permutations and the Size of the Wagers, it appears that your most favoured selections are 8,4,1.
Yet the permutations of 1 - 4 - 8 and 1 - 8 - 4 appear to be ranked well down the list , if they appear at all.

How does that work?



to answer your question they were ranked tied 331

#1 was a terrible underlay in that race for the win spot

moeee 23rd April 2011 11:22 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by woof43
Split times
1 5.120
2 5.153
3 5.214
4 5.245
5 5.088
6 5.124
7 5.204
8 5.220
This is an interesting race, with the #2 early Fav. its had approx 71 starts, starts 69 and 71 are its best races, seems strange but then considering it's past "form".it is most probably expected.
I have the #5 and #1 leading followed closely by the #6.
I'm expecting the #1 to improve it's had 2 starts since a spell, raced heavy, floundered out of the boxes both starts and finished both races off ok.

Box Payoff Rank
1 $3.54 1
2 $6.69 4
3 $22.94 5
4 $58.75 8
5 $3.63 2
6 $5.59 3
7 $55.13 7
8 $28.65 6


Obviously none of this related to the as posted RACE 9 at The Meadows.
So what Race was it actually?
Last Wednesday?

EDIT: Seems it was Race 10

woof43 25th April 2011 04:34 PM

cranbourne race 6
 
Box 1st Split Rating Rank
1 $8.66 4
2 $29.90 7
3 $10.24 5
4 $24.69 6
5 $4.29 2
9 $144.93 8
10 $5.30 3
8 $3.52 1
#8 will need some luck to get around this 1st turn, if it does, it wins easy.

I'm hoping for the upset here, plumping for the #5 & #3 to have a good show

moeee 25th April 2011 05:27 PM

RACE 6
 
I'll go a FlexiTri for $1 worth
8 - 1,5,10


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