My Stable Runners selections are mostly formless with the main criteria being a 35% win strike rate, although profits are not relied upon getting the wins each race i am surprised at the current SR of 35% and POT of 44%

Shaun, you beaut ! ...... a stable and based on win SR.

I have a minimum number of wins for the horse to qualify.

And my SR is based on the horse achieving it AFTER the race, eg; if my strike rate is 33%, I'll back a neddy which has say 14 runs for 4 wins ....., similary I'll back a neddy that has 8 runs for 2 wins ......

Do your stable horses need to have won this time in before you bet ?

I also have a maximum number of runs as a filter. I don't like horses with over 20 runs 'coz I think they're SR might detiorate at an alarming level.

Shaun I reckon you're on the right track !!!

I back them from a spell until they win with a staking plan then they get dropped, age between 3 and 6 min 8 starts with 35%+ SR

What do you do when you've got multiple selections in a race. There are times when there would be at least 3 selections, esp Spring Carnival.

I favour the ones with the better strike rate as I limit the number of runs.

I back them all, had one at Northam yesterday 3 runners i got the winner so it is dropped, i will wait for the other 2 to run again.

Shaun, well done.

I truly believe that Win SR is the best base for a system of any sorts, esp when you form a stable around this scenario.

Perhaps the biggest indicator apart from price is whether there was money for it at the track or not.

For this example,

5,547 qualifiers
Top Fluc loss on turnover -30.52%
SP loss on turnover -36.71%
Best Tote loss on turnover -17.75%
Best SP & Tote loss on turnover -16.28%

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Drifted
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Top Fluc loss on turnover -39.81%
SP loss on turnover -41.49%
Best Tote Profit -23.42%
Best SP & Tote Profit -21.77%

======
Firmed
======

Top Fluc Profit 16.13%
SP loss on turnover -12.71%
Best Tote Profit 10.73%
Best SP & Tote Profit 11.33%

So continuing on from Shaun's filter, selecting those under $3.00, and money for it, then it definitely boosts most negatives into a positive return.

*n.b. "money for it" means the final price was less than the opening price.

Hi Guys
I just spent the day analysing my data breakdown. Each ranked horse is put against the favorite win odds. I am looking at every race as a contender with the favorite's odds as the precurser to selection and the price as the only other filter for the 2-3-4-5 & 6th Fav. With the FWO (favorite win odds) =<$2 you would have to be a wise person to participate. The Fav at these odds are actually underbet but still give a negative return. The other runners can produce a return IF YOU GET THE ODDS REQUIRED. Better just to look, there are still 86% of the races to consider.
With the second fav you can start betting at =>$2.00 FWO but you should stop at $3 FWO. The 2nd favs s/r reflects the Fav's s/r and goes downhill together with the fav after $3. The key is there is a minimum price you should accept and a optimum price range.

The 3rd fav's betting starts at =>$2.50 FWO and continues to $4.70 FWO when there becomes no point continuing. There are only about 3% of races beyond this point anyway. In these races the public has said for once the handicapper has got it right and it is any horse's race. Again you muust get a minimum price or no bet.


The 4-5 and 6th fav can start when the FWO odds are=>$3 and continue over all remaining races. Again there is a minimum price and an optimum price.

This has been based on tote prices. Does Betfair prices for the fav reflect that of the tote within reason?

What bot would be best to test this?

Hi Beton;

If you do not get any other takers, I could run this on my home grown Bot to test it for you. Would have to be using Unitab at 15 secs before race start so it would not interfere with my normal live bets ... fred

Thanks 4legs.
I am trying to organise buy a bot now. The key is the optimum price range. Too open you are only going to get a small return for effort. Too high a price you are just going to backing races in which the horse has no chance of winning.
Regards Beton