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-   -   How to Win at the Dogs (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=21502)

moeee 2nd May 2011 03:45 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by woof43
Standard deviation.

maybe the most important figure in racing and the only one used by a few.


Hmmm.
If the #6 leads the Red to the First Turn, I'll be a deviate and eat his dump.

moeee 2nd May 2011 03:48 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Barny
mooee, with the greatest of respect that info about good, slow etc, etc is totally useless if you want to win.

You need to be far more precise than that.


If you have the time, I'ld love to see your precise data about Race 8 at Cranbourne.
That would be the best way I could learn from you if I could see an example of what you mean.

woof43 2nd May 2011 03:49 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by moeee
Hmmm.
If the #6 leads the Red to the First Turn, I'll be a deviate and eat his dump.


you have looked at the weights for this race, we know basically what the #6 will do.

Barny 2nd May 2011 03:56 PM

Forget precise data.



You need replays of races to study.



You need to know the classes, which is easy. You need to know the pattern of the dogs racing. You simply cannot bet unless you know what's going to happen out of the boxes, and you won't know what's going to happen out of the boxes UNLESS you know how each dog will jump, and what it will do next. Say you know 5 of the dogs ? do you know about the dog on the inside of your fancy. I used to get the "Yellow" guide, forgot the name of it, and it was the bible. BUT it didn't tell you just how fast the dogs were out of the boxes compared to the others. It didn’t tell you just how much speed the dog could must if it were 3rd going to the first turn. It didn’t tell you if it threw the towel in if it was checked.



You cannot go in half cocked because the odds are short, but there has been and always will be really good things at 3/1 going around, but you need to know how the race is going to be run, especially early.


moeee 2nd May 2011 04:03 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Barny

You need replays of races to study.



I just studied the past 5 starts of each of the animals in race 8 at Cranbourne , and I figure I have a pretty good grasp on what will happen at the start.

Can you suggest how to Wager on Race 8 at Cranbourne please Barny?

moeee 2nd May 2011 04:06 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by woof43
you have looked at the weights for this race, we know basically what the #6 will do.


This is the last question Woof.
How does looking at the weights suggest what will happen at the start of the race?

Barny 2nd May 2011 04:11 PM

mooee, down a fair bit in weight compared to it's recent weight fluctations may mean it's not as quick early ..... not a really good sign. Additional weight (a little) is OK.

moeee 2nd May 2011 04:18 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Barny
mooee, down a fair bit in weight compared to it's recent weight fluctations may mean it's not as quick early ..... not a really good sign. Additional weight (a little) is OK.


Thats strange.
I figured that a drop in weight is a clue to fitness.
And a rise in weight is due to lack of exercise , perhaps due to an injury.

No wonder I been losing so badly :(

Barny 2nd May 2011 04:30 PM

mooee, a drop in weight may be that the dog has a little more stamina (not much), but the downside is, and this is generally speaking, that it's not as 'alert' or as quick early on.

All you need is a copy of formguides which show the positioning of the dog in the run, and check how it performed with any previous weight variations.

Find a dog that has early speed and plenty of ticker ..... and can run a decent time ..... and has won a decent race ..... and IF you MUST bet from the couch, this may be the best way to go. In my opinion you've got next to no hope assessing the form using form guides from home.

moeee 2nd May 2011 04:36 PM

So are you gonna post a selection for Cranbourne Race 8 or not Barny?


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