OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

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- Horse Race Betting Systems (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/forumdisplay.php?f=10)

- - An observation (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=21565)

Further on this
7 horse races 3024 races (7%)
Fav 1 .. 1090...36%
Fav 2 .. 682 ...22.5%
Fav 3 .. 484 ...16%
Fav 4 .. 351 ...11.6%
Fav 5 .. 214 ...7%
Fav 6 .. 138 ...4.56%
Fav 7 .. 65 ...2.1%
Again the last fav only has a meagre chance of winning

6 horses 1719 races (3.94%)
Fav 1 .. 678...39.44%
Fav 2 .. 384 ...22.33%
Fav 3 .. 285 ...14.54%
Fav 4 .. 197 ...11.46%
Fav 5 .. 124 ...7%
Fav 6 .. 51 ...2.96%
Note 20 of fav 6 wins were when the Fav was =<$2

5 horse races 631 races (1.44%)
Fav 1 .. 273...43.26%
Fav 2 .. 174 ...27.57%
Fav 3 .. 94 ...14.89%
Fav 4 .. 55 ...8.71%
Fav 5 .. 35 ...5.5%

Again saying that the favorites chances of winning improves with smaller fields whereas the the outsider still wallows.

9 horses 9th fav 57 wins for 5428 races
10 horses 10th fav 50 wins for 6026 races
11 horses 11th fav 45 wins for 5969 races
12 horses 12th fav 37 wins for 6276 races
13 horses 13th fav 31 wins for 3933 races
14 horses 14th fav 23 wins for 3997 races
15 horses 15th fav 8 wins for 1068 races
16 horses 16th fav 7 wins for 1091 races
>16 horses in 195 races only 1 winner 19th fav
In 8 plus runners the rank outsider has from 1.68% chance of winning down to Buckley's

This is becoming very interesting. Thanks for those very informative posts Beton. Hopefully I can get back on to this over the coming weekend. I will keep you informed.

Fred

Sick of writing so briefly
9 runners first 8 win 99%
10 runners first 8 win 97.38%
11 runners first 8 win 95.8%
12 runners first 8 win 93.4%
13 runners first 8 win 91.2%
14 runners first 8 win 90%
15 runners first 8 win 88%
16 runners first 8 win 85.5%
>16 runners first 8 win 78% 43 wins in 195 races all except 1 from the next 8 runners. Odd. larger fields must throw up some doosies.
I wanted to do this breakdown for a while.

4legs, if you come up with a system backing the first 7, 8, 9 whatever, in the market, you can get on with me.

I agree with you there Mark. My interest was in a possible lay situation however the prices of the ones outside the top favourites are so high I am not sure if that would be feasible either, but Bhagwan made a suggestion in relation to that. At this stage I have spent so little time on it that all you could call it is an observation - but I have found the responses very interesting, and will spend a little more time on it when time permits.

Fred

Hi 4Legs.
Try this approach, it has shown to work very well.

RULES
.One race per venue.
Start at the first race of the day & work through to a qualifying race.

.Target the first race you can find with 9+ runners. (Important)

.Must be $90.00 or less.
If not , move to next race.

.Target 1 horse per venue.
10 venues = 10 selections.
This usually makes ones SR stronger, rather than chasing every race that moves, that's how punters get bit when Lay betting.

Try not to force a bet if there are no qualifiers for that race, that's where mistakes are made.

Lay Bet Method.
Lay bet 1.00 per 200.00 bank. (.5% of Bank)
This is allowable by Betfair because its Liability is $30+

e.g. 6 races = if 6 successes = 3% increase on bank.
This could equate to 21%+ profit on bank per week.
That's good money.

I believe, one will be very successful, Cherry picking this way.

If you cant get your Lay price , maybe try your luck setting it for in running.

Give it a dry run on past results to see if you can make it fall over , before using real money.

Thanks Bhagwan. It will be an interesting one to do a dry run on using past results. Hopefully I will start this weekend and will keep you informed.

I think I understood it all however, one question on your lay bet:

"Lay bet 1.00 per 200.00 bank. (.5% of Bank)"

Am I correct in assuming that should be $10 per $200 bank?

Thanks. Fred

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bhagwan

So which horse do you select?

Target the first race you can find with 9+ runners. (Important)

.Must be $90.00 or less.
If not , move to next race.

Seems to jump a step there, or am I missing something completely?