Becareful

We may have to agree to disagree on this one.
I am a firm beleiver that the Bookie sets the market while the tote is market driven. It is all very well to come up with the figures that you have but at the end of the day horses win on ability not on how much money is on them although it is always a good feeling to see a plunge on a horse after you have yours on.
I do my form, narrow a field down to 3/4 or less genuine chances and place the money on one or two of them. I try to clear a certain profit margin but I only take odds that I consider are "value to me"
I don't wait till the market is set and put my money on $2 favs because statistics show that 45% of them will win.
As a matter of interest from your figures what percentage of winners are priced at $10 or less?

Thanks Becareful,

Much appreciated. I was doing rubic cubes in the head previously.

Fryingpan - you're welcome :smile:

GeneralGym,
I am not saying that the market price is some magic predictor of each race - obviously sometimes the bookies and the punting public get the prices wrong and it is only by identifying these "mistakes" that you can make a long-term profit (obviously by betting on the runners where the price is higher than it should be). As to whether the general opinion of thousands of punters is more accurate than the opinion of a much smaller number of bookies - I am not sure but I think the TAB prices are slightly more accurate.

With regards to your question on the percentage of winners priced less than $10 my figures give the following:

48% of winners are $4.90 or less
78% of winners are $9.90 or less
89% of winners are $14.90 or less
93% of winners are $19.90 or less
99% of winners are $49.90 or less

Becareful

I'll beg to differ again with you on the word "accurate" but will concede that the tote prices tend to give less chances at shorter odds where the Bookie tends to keep more runners at safer odds especially earlier on in the betting.

thanks for you figures which confirm my line of thinking over the last few years that any odds over $15 are risky odds.
I always think twice when my selections come up at odds over $15.
I am dubious about under $3 but that is a personal thing as short odds mean a higher investment outlay to get a decent return.

I haven't read the Don Scott book but would certainly like to. I understand that they are hard to get and expensive now.
I have read the following site online and was quite taken by it.

http://www.horseracingaustralia.hl....mate/index.html