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woof43 2nd June 2011 07:27 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by moeee
Woof43

I haven't checked, but I have a fairly strong feeling that if I backed ALL My Top Selections at Level Stakes on the TAB , I would be making a Profit.

But they all seem to start a lot below My Assessed Price.
I guess thats all my problem now for not keeping records.

Regardless, if it is True, does that mean there must be something wrong with the way I assess My Markets?


Depends if your market is set to 100% or natural odds, you should be changing the tote price to 100% then compare the markets.

Because you do all the dogs 1-8 you could have seen quite easily the bias in your ratings.
A basic method is to convert your odds to a percentage then total the percentages, then compare how many winners you selected.

example if you rate 10 races your top selection was $2.00 in all ten races = .5 times by ten races you'd expect 5 winners.

moeee 2nd June 2011 07:36 PM

Well I have posted a helluva lot of Markets on this Forum, so all I need is a day with no racing so I can go over it all.

I do my Markets to 100%.

I've been given a Spreadshhet by Oaksnaf and I will play around with it to do whatI need.
I'll have to sort it by order of selection.
And Order it by percentage Chances of the animals.
Shouldn't be too hard.

How do I convert the TAB Odds into 100%?
Is it just a matter of dividing the Starting Odds Percentage by 115?

woof43 2nd June 2011 07:48 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by moeee
Well I have posted a helluva lot of Markets on this Forum, so all I need is a day with no racing so I can go over it all.

I do my Markets to 100%.

I've been given a Spreadshhet by Oaksnaf and I will play around with it to do whatI need.
I'll have to sort it by order of selection.
And Order it by percentage Chances of the animals.
Shouldn't be too hard.

How do I convert the TAB Odds into 100%?
Is it just a matter of dividing the Starting Odds Percentage by 115?

divide the 1/into payoff for each dog, get the total should be like 1.1787 etc then divide the that number by the 1/payoff

example dog 1 = tote odds $5.2
1/$5.2 =.1923
then total all the %'s for each dog
say our race totals 1.17872

now divide .1923/1.17872 = .16314
now to get payoff 1/.16314 = $6.12
Natural odds =$6.12

But after that when you start wagering more, you will move to wanting to know the $ amount invested out of the pool on each dog, so you never wager more than the optimum amount.

woof43 2nd June 2011 07:54 PM

Sandown Race 1
 
Box Total Natural Odds Moee
1 $5.81 4.7
2 $3.15 3.5
3 $15.00 16
4 $20.21 12
5 $37.43 66
6 $4.60 3.7
7 $15.21 20
8 $12.61 66
$35,383
now you can see the Natural odds the 35k is the combined pool for that race with around 30 sec to race time, 3/4 of the market is generally set at that time.
Not hard to see what dog(s) you should have wagered

moeee 2nd June 2011 08:05 PM

Yeah, but then I'ld be betting against the animal I reckon has the best Chance of Winning.
And the thing is the General Public also think My top selection has the best Chance of winning.

Sure messes with the head :(

woof43 2nd June 2011 08:10 PM

Moee, you'll find if you did your sums, your 1,2 are profitable might even get your 3rd selection to break even.
But this would be only races that are acceptable, by that i mean convert the tote odds for your top 3 selections if this does not total more .67 do not win bet this race.

woof43 2nd June 2011 08:21 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by woof43
Moee, you'll find if you did your sums, your 1,2 are profitable might even get your 3rd selection to break even.
But this would be only races that are acceptable, by that i mean convert the tote odds for your top 3 selections if this does not total more .67 do not win bet this race.


convert your rated odds into a percentage , not the Tote odds

I meant to post

woof43 2nd June 2011 08:33 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by moeee
Yeah, but then I'ld be betting against the animal I reckon has the best Chance of Winning.
And the thing is the General Public also think My top selection has the best Chance of winning.

Sure messes with the head :(


Also remember Moee from your records if your 4th ranked dog produced a loss, -40%.
In todays race you have it $5.50, and it's starting $5.60 it looks an overlay, but really over time it still will not make up the losses.

moeee 2nd June 2011 08:42 PM

So if I get a sample of 100 Races, and just supposing we accept that it is a representative sample, even though 100 ain't enough in the REAL World, should all my animals , when grouped in Order of MY Favouritism , be showing similar losses if I have done a good job of handicapping?
Or should My top selections be showing a Profit, based on the Odds I calculated, with a progressively worse result as I go down my list?

Or should I not concentrate on Profits and Losses , and just confine myself to the percentage of Winners, as you described in your very first post giving me advice?

woof43 2nd June 2011 08:51 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by moeee
So if I get a sample of 100 Races, and just supposing we accept that it is a representative sample, even though 100 ain't enough in the REAL World, should all my animals , when grouped in Order of MY Favouritism , be showing similar losses if I have done a good job of handicapping?
Or should My top selections be showing a Profit, based on the Odds I calculated, with a progressively worse result as I go down my list?

Or should I not concentrate on Profits and Losses , and just confine myself to the percentage of Winners, as you described in your very first post giving me advice?

you measure your ratings by how many winners, you should have a smooth transition right down to rank 6,7-8 who may blend together.
1=32%, 2=21% 3=15% and so on down to the lowest rank,


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