Thanks Bhagwan

I think that laying the 4th will prove to be counterproductive. You are right the sacrifical bet is to reduce the liability.
???? You have got me lost on the alternative. The fav is going to win 35% of the time and the 2nd and 3rd favs will win 35% of the time cancelling each other out and then you have the 30% of the time when the field gets up which will put you in the red.
Beton

The other problem that occurs is that often the best value is on the shortest horses on Betfair.

Hint hint...

Chrome Prince
Aye Aye.
the best vaue is the shortest horses. I just took my favorite breakdown and matched it with laying the top three and backing the top for a set level stake. I used the fav odds and the ave for 2nd and 3rd. Shorter the odds -sweeter the meat. Over $4 does not warrant the effort.
Beton

nudge nudge, wink wink, say no more ;)

I have absolutely no idea what you guys are talking about and I want desperately to know. Please! :confused:

This idea Beton is very good.

I like it.

Well done.

Hi beton, Bhagwan, Chrome Prince, et al.

I still don't understand where you guys are coming from with this. Does anyone else understand?

Why would you both back and lay the fav - surely they cancel each other out.

Bhagwan - How do you end up with this if your liability is $30 at the odds mentioned by beton:
If Fav wins = +8.00

If 2nd Fav wins = -$12.00

If 3rd Fav wins = -$7.72

If 4th fav wins = -$6.00

If all fall over = +$28.00

Chrome Prince wrote: "The other problem that occurs is that often the best value is on the shortest horses on Betfair.

Hint hint..."

Why are they the best value? Do you mean to back them or lay them?

There's probably heaps more questions but that will do for now.

I know I'm a (very) simple guy but I don't get it. Can you help me to understand?

Ocho Hi
If you lay the fav by itself. At $1.50 it will win 60% of the time in which you will lose $30 but it will not win 40% of the time which you will get $60 each time. a clear 33% profit. But $1.50 favs only account for 0.2% of races. Don't run and buy the porcshe.
At $3 where the higher percentage of races are 21.5% in a 50 cent band you will lose $30 29% of the time, but you will gain $15 71% of the time. A clear profit of 22%. However if you have deep pockets to ride out the periods where the fav is having a good spell then it is good.
You add the second and third fav then you can increase your profits. By backing the fav for a small sum then you even the ups and downs for a slightly less profit.
Beton

Beton, Can you do this with one bot rather than 2 bots? My bot can place difference back or lay amounts on different favs. So in your example I would lay the 2nd and 3rd favs for $30 liability but what would I do with the first fav - would I lay to $20 or $10 liability or back it for $10 or to win $30, etc (rather than laying the fav on one bot and backing on the other)?

Ocho
I have Betbotpro and just learning. So 2 bots. one backing the fav fixed stake $12. The other laying fav 1,2 and third fav. My working out mathematically it should give $360 per 100 bets, all races. I have worked out the SR in all price increments. There is potentially more in just laying the top three but there was eight loses straight at one stage today. The only problem I have is implementation. My bot randomly throws on multiple bets on races and rarely lays the three horses. I don't know what is occurring. What bot are you using? Beton

Beton,

I am using BF Bot Manager Version 2 that can handle multiple favs. I was just trying it out in sim mode today laying the 2nd and 3rd favs and, at one stage, there were 31 out of 32 races in a row where the 2nd and 3rd favs didn't salute WOW WEE.

As I'm writing though there have been 6 races in a row where one of those 2 favs have saluted in a row - Easy come easy go I suppose (even in sim mode) :). Todays high was +$256 and as we speak the bot is on +$104 :(

Getting back to the bot. I think I can implement something like what you are saying using only 1 bot as my bot has the ability to back or lay different favs.

Can you please let me know what the best setting would be to do it on 1 bot? I believe you say to BACK the 1st fav with a fixed stake of $12. Does the price matter? Is there a ceiling? The other bot would lay the 1st fav for $30 liability. But what about combining them with one bet? How would that work? What would I do?

If it's a saver bet then what about laying to $10 liability (or something) so that the 2nd and 3rd fav may then pay for the loss if the 1st fav wins?

Do you know what I mean?

(A lot of questions there, sorry) :rolleyes: