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Twodogs 23rd June 2011 06:10 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Raven
Twodogs,

You will probably find the faves that look like undeserving faves, have in fact a better ROI than the more obvious ones to boot.


Your right Raven,

The ones that should be left out ( due to form concerns etc) will be the ones that add value to what ever bet type you have taken.

Twodogs

Twodogs 23rd June 2011 06:17 AM

The winner of race 8 in Adel yesterday Serious Danger.
Dist 3 0 0 0. Dead 5 0 1 0

On face value hard to have but it won and was on the 5th line of betting and paid $7 TFluc and $15.50 best tote! ( The bookies knew something)

Twodogs

Bhagwan 25th June 2011 12:10 AM

I think you have stumbled across one of those urban myths concerning horses that have run well at the distance.

I found , using the GTX program, that horses that performed well at the distance did not perform any better than horses that have never run the distance.

As a matter of fact , the horses that have never run at the distance performed better than those who had won at the distance - weird.

That's over 40,000 races.

Twodogs 25th June 2011 06:11 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bhagwan
I think you have stumbled across one of those urban myths concerning horses that have run well at the distance.

I found , using the GTX program, that horses that performed well at the distance did not perform any better than horses that have never run the distance.

As a matter of fact , the horses that have never run at the distance performed better than those who had won at the distance - weird.

That's over 40,000 races.


Certainly turns doing the form on it's head doesn't it??

Thanks for the data Bhagwan

Twodogs

jose 25th June 2011 09:37 AM

Bags, is that all distance ranges?
I was led to believe that when a horse was having it's first go at a mile you should leave it alone.
Would love to see some stats on it actually.

Bhagwan 26th June 2011 12:03 AM

That was all distances.

I will leave that up to you to research the different distances,


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