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Just the one price Shaun. It's only that I was looking at that race that I noticed the huge difference. Would love to hear the (unexplainable) explanation. |
I wonder how often this happens, might be something we could look into, backing SP and laying at race odds.
I know you don't know exact SP until after the start but Gruss has an SP indicator. |
Can you check the indicator post race, because I can almost guarantee it would have been around 4.5 and not 14.5. I guess it's up to those affected to complain about it.
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No, they remove all the prices but i would assume what is listed on that website should be what it was, if not something is way wrong then.
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Mark, seen this quite a few times now.
It's distortion of the SP caused by an unbalanced load of money on one side. There are two ways this can occur. Horse A has $2,000 traded on it at $5.00 Some bright spark takes a set against it and lays $5,000 without price limit in the dying seconds. Which means he clicks a really high price and scoops $5,000 waiting to back regardless of price. This unbalances the SP but does not effect the predicted SP. So we'll see a last traded price of maybe $5.50, but an SP of $15.00. The other way is one large SP lay bet without a price limit set. SP will try to match as much money as it can, so if there's no price limit set, it will keep matching until all money with no limit is matched. Both scenarios push the SP on individual runners out to unacceptable lay levels. |
The problem is not with the way the SP is calculated, it is a very big problem with giving punters the option to specifiy odds limits or specify no limit.
This is really what causes the large majority of distorted SP's. Imagine this scenario, I've seen it happen in smaller markets.... Horse is trading @ $2.00 on Betfair. Punter wants to lay it at SP for $5,000 with no price limit. Backer wants to back it for $1,000 with a limit of $10.00 (greedy sod). There isn't enough liquidity in the SP so $1,000 of the $5,000 gets matched at $10.00. Backer is doing cartwheels, layer is totally ************ed and SP returned is around $4.00. |
Thanks Chrome, this is why I lay to different amounts on every race, depending on the amounts matched, the class, and the general % just before the jump. I'm guessing this sort of distortion is far less likely on UK races.
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Yes, you never see this in UK races as the liquidity is there at every price.
Australia is next best, the example you gave is the exception, usually this doesn't occur on favourites but can occur on horses $10 plus. Followed by the USA. Then we have RSA where just about every lay bet at SP pushes the price beyond reasonable levels. They aren't going to change the way SP is calculated because everyone is happy to use it as is, but to be sustainable for outside UK the calculation of SP needs to be done on the price with the most money traded - simple! Distortion of SP is a real problem as it stands. |
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