Is that looking at the win% after the horse's last win and subtracting 20%, or the win% over the last 4 to 6 starts Barny?

With the former doesn't that mean you subtract 20% off all the horses win% as its win% would be calculated up to the most recent run and including any last win..or not. Wouldn't that mean that the ratio of win%'s between each horse would be still the same?

Of course if you're looking at a certain win% 'must have' qualification, after a winner minus 20% I get your drift.

Sorry for being a bit thick .

Been looking at the third up, increasing in distance factor and it does throw up some good winners, definitely something to take into acount.

Thanks Pete

1) Select a predertimined Win% (can be the Win% the horse would be, after / if it won) .....

2) Choose a minimum number of race wins - this excludes horses who have had say 2 starts for one win etc, etc.

that's it .....

Over a period of time, you will notice that the Win% declines progressively to about 20% ..... before the Win% is too low to qualify

A couple of commonsense filters and away you go.

Thanks Barny, makes sense. So many angles, so little time to test them all...manually I might add.

peter m, Race 5 at flemington tomorrow has 4 qualifiers.

Brazilian Pulse
Mid Summer Music
Biancon Rose
Zaira

I like to only have one bet in any race ..... sometimes I might choose a couple of the best races on a Saturday to have a bet on. It might be one at Eagle Farm and one at Rosehill for example. there may be say 8 or 9 qualifiers on a Saturday and I will have maybe two bets. I filter for races, if more than one qualifier then I'll filter for where the horse comes from (eg; if it's an interstate visitor I'll back it) or maybe the horse with the most wins in the race.

I don't have the key to the vault, but what I do have is a simple base which selects a good horse and a good combination. I've found that some of these horses, esp from interstate, aren't given much credence for their good Win% S/R because they've run in inferior company. Also, putting faith in a winning combination makes it easier to filter out the NOISE.

cheers
Barny

Please go and support a family who is going through cancer. Believe me, they're doing it tough no matter how good a front they're putting on. Take the carer out fishing or for lunch. Put yourself out there, no matter how hard it is emotionally for you.

Hey Barny.Why not put those 4 in a trifecta/1st 4.
You never know.

While I was doing the form you came to mind when I had all those selections confronting me. There were 4 qualifiers in Melb, two in Steak & Kidney, and one at Eagle Farm. One winner in Sydney at $5 does not look encouraging, but I filtered out 3 in Melbourne and one in Sydney because there were three in the same race Melb and two in the same race Syd. So we ended up with one bet in Melb, one in Syd and one at Eagle Farm for one winner on Saturday@ $5. The basis I picked the winner on in Sydney was not rocket science, and it also picked the 2nd placing in Melb out of the 4 qualifiers.

This system is due to fall over as it has had a really good run. Because of it's recent success, I didn't have a bet on Saturday. I'll keep posting on this !

This system is due to fall over as it has had a really good run. Because of it's recent success, I didn't have a bet on Saturday. I'll keep posting on this ![/QUOTE]
Comes back to the fact that winning and losing runs come in cycles (A winning run is always followed by a losing run and vice versa)

Cheers
darky

Hi darkydog2002, yup winning and losing runs are a fact, but what degree of volatility do we expect with this system? There are methods of smoothing out the peaks and troughs, this is my next exercise. One could also "punt up" and make a squillion when we get a few good winners in a short space of time.

Bazza (A System Seller) once had a plan where you doubled the stake after a winner on the next horse.
If it lost you went back to the original stake.

Cheers
darky

"Bazza" sounds like the type of person you'd want on your side as a guide to financial independance ......