Final Ratings:
1-3-10-2-5-16-4-6-9-14-8-13-12-18-20-15-17-21-11-22-19
Last week we'd have struck the NSW pick 4 taking top 3 to win into top 8 to run 2/3/4.
Paid $8000 for an outlay of $630 (or $80 for $6.50 taking a 1% flexibet on NSW TAB).
Now let's see what happens this week.

Railway Stakes
 

My rated order from 1st to last in the Railway is:
3-14-5-4-12-16-6-18-20-9-11-7-2-1-8-19-15-17-10-13
Anybody care to add these and see what concensus we can come up with.
A flexi pick 4 nominating top 4 into top 12-12-12 to run the minors will be my default bet.
Good luck.

Railway Stakes Concensus
 

A losing result backing 4-12-12-12 according to rated order. Ratings for me came in at 12-9-7-8 so nowhere near it really.
I think there is an optimum field size for first fours. The bigger fields (18+ or so) often don't have sufficient in the pool to cover paying on all combinations. Hence you could back the field in a field of 18 (118 440 combinations), the absolute outsiders could get up and you'd be paid out at the approximate pool size (30-40K) which would be gross unders.
I think that a 'working' size for first 4s is around 12 to 14 starters. Next step is to find such a race which promises to throw up an above average priced set of placegetters (maybe a race with 5+ [or so] horses 1st and 2nd up in it). Anyway, food for thought. Anyone interested in contributing, I'll nominate a race on Friday and allow until midday for your thoughts. That way I should be able to work out the concensus ratings by approx. 1pm.

My ratings for WA race 8. (Fruit & Veg)
Will be interested to see concensus on this race.
20-14-15-11-10-6-8-17-13-16-4-1-7-5-12-9-19-18-2-3

fruit and vege ratings
 

Percentum,

I did these more quickly then I like but my ratings are :

15-13-14-9-11-16-17-4-6-10-7-1-19-8-5-12-20-3-2-18

Combined ratings give this rating order:

15 - 14 - 11 - 17 - 10 - 6 - 4 - 9 - 8 - 1 - 5 - 12

Concensus ratings order was 7th, 2nd, 12th, 3rd.
Notice that barriers 1, 2 and 3 filled the placings for a $4000+ trifecta.
I think there is a viable system somewhere around these criteria: big field (14+) and open race [maybe group or listed] and inside 7 barriers at Doomben or Ascot.
Logic - big field + 'grand final' type race = genuine pace; horses have to work really hard outside; bulk of runners in this type of race have ability so can take advantage of a sweet run.
I can recall 3 barrier 1 horses winning the Doomben 10 000 from in the last decade (Sunavail at 25/1; Count de Beers and Red Oog at 20/1). I think barriers 1-7 filled the placings this year. Takeover Target won the big race today from barrier 1.
I think Ascot favours inside horses as well.
Anyway, food for thought.

Villiers
 

The Villiers is my concensus race this weekend.
My rated order:

7 - 3 - 21 - 13 - 11 - 1 - 16 - 2 - 15 - 17 - 19 - 18 - 8 - 12 - 4 - 5 - 9 - 14 - 6 - 20 - 10