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-   -   Can a Profit be made chasing Favs (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=23043)

beton 5th December 2011 11:34 AM

SYSTEM RESULTS FOR: McY SYST_BHAGGYS FAV 01/12/2010-30/11/2011
............. WIN ...... PLACE QUINELLA EXACTA TRIFECTA FIRST FOUR
Races Bet: 422 422 422 422 422 403
Races Won: 168 292 188 129 95 67
S.R./Race: 39.8% 69.2% 44.5% 30.6% 22.5% 16.6%
Outlay($): 422.00 422.00 2125.00 2125.00 8604.00 25284.00
Return : 448.50 429.08 2259.70 2497.80 9731.70 31721.40
$ Profit : 26.50 7.08 134.70 372.80 1127.70 6437.40
% P.O.T. : 6.3% 1.7% 6.3% 17.5% 13.1% 25.5%
Av Win Div: 2.67
Av Plc Div: 1.47
Win SR/Seln: 39.8
Plc SR/Seln: 69.2
LSW no maidens and a simple twist eliminating some runners

beton 5th December 2011 12:01 PM

SYSTEM RESULTS FOR: MY SYST_BHAGGYS FAV 01/12/2010-30/11/2011
.................WIN PLACE QUINELLA EXACTA TRIFECTA FIRST FOUR
Races Bet: 217 217 217 217 217 207
Races Won: 95 164 110 73 55 38
S.R./Race: 43.8% 75.6% 50.7% 33.6% 25.3% 18.4%
Outlay($): 217.00 217.00 1091.00 1091.00 4408.00 12912.00
Return : 255.80 236.26 1215.40 1325.10 5873.60 18053.20
$ Profit : 38.80 19.26 124.40 234.10 1465.60 5141.20
% P.O.T. : 17.9% 8.9% 11.4% 21.5% 33.2% 39.8%
Av Win Div: 2.69
Av Plc Div: 1.44
Win SR/Seln: 43.8
Plc SR/Seln: 75.6
Dis <2000 Wt =<56 and no Sunday. LSW no maidens and the simple twist

beton 5th December 2011 12:22 PM

SYSTEM RESULTS FOR: MY SYST_BHAGGYS FAV 01/12/2010-30/11/2011
WIN PLACE QUINELLA EXACTA TRIFECTA FIRST FOUR
Races Bet: 170 170 170 170 170 163
Races Won: 78 129 88 61 45 33
S.R./Race: 45.9% 75.9% 51.8% 35.9% 26.5% 20.2%
Outlay($): 170.00 170.00 852.00 852.00 3428.00 10032.00
Return : 207.30 183.12 965.00 1062.90 4691.10 14861.10
$ Profit : 37.30 13.12 113.00 210.90 1263.10 4829.10
% P.O.T. : 21.9% 7.7% 13.3% 24.8% 36.8% 48.1%
Av Win Div: 2.66
Av Plc Div: 1.42
Win SR/Seln: 45.9
Plc SR/Seln: 75.9

Added win/place %ranking =<5 and max LSW =<5
3 races per week

beton 5th December 2011 01:56 PM

SYSTEM RESULTS FOR: MY SYST_BHAGGYS FAV 01/10/2007-30/11/2011
WIN PLACE QUINELLA EXACTA TRIFECTA FIRST FOUR
Races Bet: 749 748 749 749 749 726
Races Won: 288 487 321 219 156 104
S.R./Race: 38.5% 65.1% 42.9% 29.2% 20.8% 14.3%
Outlay($): 749.00 748.00 3773.00 3773.00 15310.00 45810.00
Return : 746.20 699.98 3608.40 4010.70 14884.60 40947.70
$ Profit : -2.80 -48.02 -164.60 237.70 -425.40 -4862.30
% P.O.T. : -0.4% -6.4% -4.4% 6.3% -2.8% -10.6%
Av Win Div: 2.59
Av Plc Div: 1.44
Win SR/Seln: 38.5
Plc SR/Seln: 65.0
Strenght of this were the last 5 months

2009 and 2010 both negative years

Breakdown by Year - Level Stakes

Breakdown by Year - Level Stakes

Bets Wins $Return Outs %SR $Up $Dn %Up %Dn $Profit %POT IV SR POT
2007 46 19 49.8 4 41 3.8 - - - 3.8 8 1.07


2008 198 83 202.8 11 42 8.6 - - - 4.8 2 1.09


2009 188 61 163.9 14 32 -15.5 - - - -24.1 -13 0.84


2010 157 51 137.6 9 32 -34.9 - - - -19.4 -12 0.84


2011 160 74 192.1 8 46 -2.8 - - - 32.1 20 1.20

Bhagwan 5th December 2011 02:00 PM

Thanks for those data checks
I must of left something out.
Lets try again.

Fav
TAB 5-8
Ran 1-5 LS
Field size <= 8
Track Good only.

48%SR
34% POT


There were 150 selections for the System
There were 72 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 48%
There were $200.48 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $50.48 or a percentage profit/loss of 33.65%

The Rules used were : horseNumber >= 5 and horseNumber <=8 and priceRank < 90 and priceRank = 1 and lastStart >= 1 and lastStart <=5 and runners <= 8 and cond = 'G'

partypooper 5th December 2011 02:32 PM

ran those exact rules thru the database again 10,000 favs: result:

Bets 193
hits 74
S/R 38.34% (pretty good)

place 128
hits (66.32%)

Returns for the win = $186.8 (LOT 3.21%)
Place =$198 POT 2.59%

beton 5th December 2011 02:38 PM

Bhagwan
I had field size at 16.
These new parameters show that the wins have been in the last 4 months but a loss over the year

beton 5th December 2011 02:40 PM

SYSTEM RESULTS FOR: MY SYST_BHAGGY FAV 01/12/2010-30/11/2011
WIN PLACE QUINELLA EXACTA TRIFECTA FIRST FOUR
Races Bet: 386 384 386 386 386 358
Races Won: 156 270 221 144 129 103
S.R./Race: 40.4% 70.3% 57.3% 37.3% 33.4% 28.8%
Outlay($): 386.00 384.00 1911.00 1911.00 7592.00 21216.00
Return : 370.20 378.18 1757.60 1906.00 7221.30 19005.70
$ Profit : -15.80 -5.82 -153.40 -5.00 -370.70 -2210.30
% P.O.T. : -4.1% -1.5% -8.0% -0.3% -4.9% -10.4%

UselessBettor 5th December 2011 05:22 PM

Bhagwan,

Remember my system tester only has data since Aug 11.
Also its based on betfair prices at 10 secs from jump.

Im not sure wehat prices bentons/partypoopers db's runs against but different prices can mean different results.

Bhagwan 5th December 2011 07:35 PM

Thanks for those stats Beton.
They look interesting.

I see your stats show a SR of 40% (very good)

Just a little tip when posting stats in such a format.
Because the Propun uses a program that automatically adjusts all
2+ spacings to just 1

One can use a series of ..... or ---- to space out the information to a format that's easier to look at.

Cheers.


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