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-   -   Time rating (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=23161)

aussielongboat 2nd January 2012 12:14 PM

I always thought the most useful aspect of time was how it related to pace in a race.
thus if your pick is tailed off and they run some" cheap sectionals" it would have no chance as the race would become a quarter-horse finish down the straight.

so you discard the run.

next time under similar conditions where there is a couple of early speedsters in the field you may feel that your pick maybe will be steaming home over the top and represents good value

that's as far as i could get with it.

The Ocho 2nd January 2012 12:28 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by lomaca
The Ocho
Can't bring my head around to this laying caper.

I do know that my top time rated selections are not profitable for backing, but at the prices they are running maybe they would be losers at laying?
I mean if one comes in at $25 that is a fair chunk of money to pay out?

Any easy way to test it?

Well I definitely wouldn't be laying anything at $25 but a bot could be set up to lay your own selections in running if they come down to a certain price. If they are virtually leading all the way but then tiring then you would think the price would come down to maybe $3 or $4 (or less). The bot would fire off a bet and hopefully get matched and if it wins you haven't lost so much.

I guess it depends on strike rates and the like.

woof43 2nd January 2012 01:09 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by moeee
Your ability to turn simple into complicated is frighteningly amazing Woof43.

P.S. Can't recall if I replied , but thanks for the complicated sheets.
I have filed them in my "some things are best left to experts" Folder.


If I recall the sheets i provided were in response the contact address you provided.

1 sheet detailed time adjustments one needed to make when comparing a runners time from any track to The Meadows.

The other just detailed the average winners time for every track in Australia over all distances each sheet provided a count as to the confidence/validity of the data.

lomaca 2nd January 2012 01:23 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Ocho
Well I definitely wouldn't be laying anything at $25 but a bot could be set up to lay your own selections in running if they come down to a certain price. If they are virtually leading all the way but then tiring then you would think the price would come down to maybe $3 or $4 (or less). The bot would fire off a bet and hopefully get matched and if it wins you haven't lost so much.

I guess it depends on strike rates and the like.
One question, how do you know what the "in running" price was?
I don't collect any data from BF.

I have very good records as to the selections final TAB prices and finish positions so I could work out the position on lays, but if there is a diff. between "in running" and final price than I'd waste my time.

Thanks to all who replied.
As I said before, I gave up on time rating some time ago only looked at it recently again, it's not something one can do easily, it's more like a black art, too many variables.

darkydog2002 2nd January 2012 01:41 PM

Phil Purser of "justracing" uses them but god knows why.?

The Ocho 2nd January 2012 02:38 PM

I'm not sure lomaca as to in running prices. My bot can tell you what the highest and lowest the horse traded at but doesn't give how much money was bet at each level.

lomaca 2nd January 2012 06:25 PM

3 Attachment(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Ocho
I'm not sure lomaca as to in running prices. My bot can tell you what the highest and lowest the horse traded at but doesn't give how much money was bet at each level.
Thanks T O.

I think I stick to what I know best, here is an example how bad my time rating is compared to my class rating. (see time text)

Race 6 Pinjarra, you'd think a 1000 M race would be ideally suited for time rating, and yet? (see class text)

Unfortunately the nemesis of not being able to get matched for the full amount struck again, but this time not too bad. (see BF text)

lomaca 2nd January 2012 07:12 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by lomaca
Thanks T O.

I think I stick to what I know best, here is an example how bad my time rating is compared to my class rating. (see time text)

Race 6 Pinjarra, you'd think a 1000 M race would be ideally suited for time rating, and yet? (see class text)

Unfortunately the nemesis of not being able to get matched for the full amount struck again, but this time not too bad. (see BF text)
Not betting but let's see
PIJ race 8
Class No, 6, 9, 7
Time No, 3 ,11 13

jose 2nd January 2012 07:27 PM

Hope you got some of the TRI Iomaca.

lomaca 2nd January 2012 07:31 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by jose
Hope you got some of the TRI Iomaca.
Hate to admit it Jose, I don't even bet a quinella!

Trust me, I had so many two legged tries and three legged quadies that I can't be bothered anymore with multiples.

I would be hard pressed to pick an exa in a two horse race.
Sad but true.

Good luck

Ps should I strech my luck?

Here it goes, no bets again
Race 9 PIJ
Class 2,5,16,3
Time 6,12,5,10


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