OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

Quote:

Originally Posted by moeee

You must consider the Odds of the rest of the Field.

Picture that the Favourite was BlackCaviar.
Your $1.50 a place horse has virtually zero chance of winning.
Therefore the whole 66% place chance is divided up between 2nd and 3rd position.

If your horse was substantially better than the rest of the also rans, then it could be divided up as 50% and 16%
If it were of equal ability of say 2 other runners, then it could be divided as perhaps 33% and 33%.

Just noticed your post Moeee,

in 2006 i posted this in a win efficiency thread

"The whole point about playing our handicapping game (and a lot of the "game of life") is being forced to make decisions even when faced with incomplete or conflicting information. And a person that is better at determining those probabilities and expectations in the handicapping domain, especially with uncertain information, gets paid more money in the long haul."

What was your bankroll then? I'd say your understanding is a lot better now.