UselessBettor |
13th January 2012 05:43 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by moeee
Every animal in every Race has Odds of winning a Race.
If you are simply dismissing an animal as having zero chance based on certain criteria , then you will learn that this is erroneous thinking.
It may be today or it may be tomorrow or it may be next week , but you will find one of your dismissed animals will actually salute.
You must have an idea of an animals Chances of winning , and only Lay it at odds less than what you consider.
The difference between what you consider the right Odds , and what you actually lay it at , is called your perceived edge.
If you don't have an edge , then you don't have anything.
And if your perceived edge is wrong , you still have nothing.
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I fully agree with you moeee. I am assessing these horses as having less then a 1% chance. Maybe I get some right and I get some right. 1% chance is $100 and 2% chance is $50 . I'll form a cutoff point when I have more data onm my selection technique.
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