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-   -   Classic case of being awake. (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=23276)

darkydog2002 7th February 2012 04:30 PM

I,m not up with this new fangled Betfair stuff.

Sands 7th February 2012 04:41 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark
The whole point is to make money, I think, maybe I'm wrong.
It didn't matter if it won.
It didn't matter if it ran a place.
It didn't matter if it ran last.
I made a profit so long as it went around.

Yep another example, classic case of being awake

moeee 7th February 2012 05:01 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark
Taree R4, 1 Good Manners $31 freely available with the books, laid on BF @ 18, nice work. ps, who cares where it runs.


I can't quite see how you win here.
Could you please post your exact wagers on this race so I can understand how it works?

Shaun 7th February 2012 06:17 PM

Not sure how much the bookies will take but lets just say you could back it for $200
Back $200x$31=profit $6000
Lay $344.44x$18=liability $5855



Win or lose you collect about $144 a bit less on the loss because of commission.

The calculation to work it out is Stake x backprice/layprice

moeee 7th February 2012 07:00 PM

Shaun
 
So if it wins I collect $6000 take away $5855 what I lost on Betfair.

And if it Loses , how much do I get back from Betfair?

moeee 7th February 2012 07:19 PM

Ah okay
I see it now

I get back $344 minus 5% means about $330 .
And take away the $200 on the Bookies leaves $130 Profit.

Be funny if after backing it at $31 and going to Betfair to lay it , the Punters decided they dont want to back it any more.

Shaun 7th February 2012 07:19 PM

$327.21 after commission less the $200 for the back bet so $127.21

Shaun 7th February 2012 07:27 PM

This is the same formula used when trading but if you were laying first it would be
lay stake x layodds/backodds

This gives you equal profit win or lose minus commission.

Mark 7th February 2012 07:47 PM

Cheers Shaun, you're pretty much spot on.

Had $200 @ 31, and laid $363 @ 17.12.

Wins = +$6000 - (363 x 16.12) = +$148.44
Loses = -$200 + (363 x 95.45%) = +$146.48

I'm on 4.6% commission.

All I look for are runners that are 95% or less of the bookies price, and that there's plenty of liquidity. Yesterday there were none but today I got on 10 which is very unusual, and just missed a few others.

Shaun 7th February 2012 08:17 PM

How many bookie sites do you look at?


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