No worries L.G.


Your humble opinion is noted ( L.O.L.)

Cheers.

Hi Greystoke .
Thanks for the kind words.

If one were successful, say 67% of the time, separating the 1st & 2nd fav with 50% SR combined, the SR would be 33.50%+

The question of False fav ,is generally, a fav that did not win.
There will be seen many instances where a horse deserves to be Fav.
On form , it cant lose.
But we see many of these, cant lose Favs , fall in a hole for no explained reason.

HI Bhagwan,
thanks for your input on this.

It is an interesting challenge to target - I am of the opinion that if you identify & eliminate the favorites most likely to fall over from the equation, you substantially increase or load your own SR. This assumes that one has a consistent system of shortlisting the best chances, of course?

Can you provide your workings for how you get to 33.5%+?

I would have thought that if I successfully eliminate one of the top favorites at least 2/3rds of the time, then the probability of the remaining favorite winning is closer to 50%.

I am unable to substantiate the hypothesis however as my probability maths is a little rusty!

cheers LG

Hay List, 'fixed' abscess on the foot, huge run in the Newmarket apparently took it's toll ..... All so easy AFTER the event, but it did have a big question mark over it prior to Last Friday's race.

And Helmet ..... someone here suggested it wouldn't win a race after it's hard run in a Group 1 event recently ..... So far, so good.

Two nags who've buttered up after having hard runs in top races and been beaten. So do we just look for those who've had the guts run out of them (a la Djokevich and Nadal) and 'scratch them from our selections?

One system I've seen is to lay those that won and ran career best time last start... it may have some merit, but I've no evidence either way, as I don't keep race times...maybe someone can help with this one?

Hi Greystoke.

If one could sustain a 100% SR of separating the 2 Favs , then yes , it would be 50% SR.

But we do know that is very unlikely long term.

We are assuming based on past history over 10 yrs that the top 2 Favs win 50% of all races.

Now separate them so you have one selection per race.

===========================================

There is one strong method I can recommend having a go with .

RULES
Target the 2 Favs in each race.

Bet 4 units on the one you feel should win.
Bet 1 unit on the other, as a sort of saver bet.

This works very well & you will enjoy a 50% SR.
Hopefully the long runs of outs will be contained doing it this way & keep ones punting more interesting.

Delete any race with a fav <=2.00

In the same area - I just read somewhere "odds on favs win approx 55% of all races, whereas favourites priced at $2.70 or more(7/4) have a very poor historical win strike rate of only approx 18%.
Anyone got any stats to support or discredit this statement ?
cheers........ Mancunian

I do times, and you are correct, mighty hard for a horse to back up next start after running a one-out fast time. Often this time is pace related anyway.

Peak Performamce Syndrome - a theory i have believed in since the mid 90"s.

This may help.


All FAV'S
Races=55,162
Wins =17,172
S/rate=31%
Av tab=$2.80
Av s/p=$2.80
LOT=12.3%

Up to $3.0
Bets=31,014
Wins=11,842
S/rate=38.2
Div =$2.37.
LOT=9.6%

Over $3.0.
Bets=24,152
Wins=5,330
S/rate=22.0
Div= $3.80
LOT=17%

Over $4.0
Bets=7,168
Wins=1,282
S/rate=18.0
Div=$4.57
LOT=18.0

Over $5.0
Bets=2,677
Wins=432.
S/rate=16.0
Div=$5.05
LOT=18%

These haven't been updated for a while now,
But gives you reasonable idea of what the,
S/rate of Fav's are pertaining to price groups.

Cheers.

Faves $2.70 or more
 

Yes, strike rate is 25%

Runners: 103,781
Winners: 26,091
Win%: 25.14%