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-   Horse Race Betting Systems (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/forumdisplay.php?f=10)
-   -   Profiting from the Crowd (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=23914)

Shaun 25th April 2012 12:48 PM
Here is some prices, these ratings are not fully compatable with my pricing but should give a guide.

Code:


1	32.74
2	50.67
3	
4	
5	2.57
6	6.06
7	9.18
8	4.39
9	68.65
10	13.64
11	85.00
12	12.49
13	3.50
14	50.67
	
1	2.68
2	12.20
3	3.98
4	4.81
5	5.97
6	25.03
7	31.49
8	27.93
9	85.00
10	13.01
11	12.20
12	16.06
13	41.72
14	18.86
15	5.64
16	25.03
	
1	12.40
2	4.27
3	
4	5.26
5	
6	5.04
7	3.55
8	3.68
9	
10	
11	
12	15.03
13	16.12
14	16.12
15	8.97
16	85.00
	
	
1	33.96
2	8.95
3	4.02
4	18.72
5	4.02
6	100.00
7	4.17
8	
9	85.00
10	14.02
11	5.25
12	4.02

norisk 25th April 2012 01:31 PM
just for a bit of fun

Code:


1	$76
2	$94
3	
4	
5	$2.12
6	$16
7	$30
8	$8.35
9	$105
10	$36
11	$144
12	$33
13	$4.93
14	$94


1	$2.61
2	$21
3	$7.49
4	$11.42
5	$17
6	$55
7	$68
8	$62
9	$177
10	$24
11	$21
12	$33
13	$85
14	$40
15	$16
16	$55

1	$29
2	$6.62
3	
4	$11.20
5	
6	$10.08
7	$3.91
8	$4.34
9	
10	
11	
12	$40
13	$44
14	$44
15	$15
16	$264

1	$128
2	$19
3	$4.89
4	$68
5	$4.89
6	$241
7	$5.43
8	
9	$331
10	$45
11	$10.22
12	$4.89

AngryPixie 25th April 2012 05:09 PM
Started off well there guys.

To be true to the wisdom of the crowd I suppose we'd have to accept that the market price is more accurate than the rated price. Therefore the rated price should perhaps be the maximum that should be accepted.

UselessBettor 25th April 2012 07:48 PM
Your right ... The wisdom of crowds says the more people provide input the closer the result will be to the correct price. It was proven that a small crowd of "experts" actually did worse then a larger crowd of the public .

The same happens here. The final tote price is going to be closer then the experts selections over the long run. The real gems are to find out where the crowd is consistenly wrong and profit from that.

AngryPixie 25th April 2012 08:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AngryPixie
Started off well there guys.

Just read that back and it sounds pretty sarcastic. What I was trying to say is that we started off well on the first couple of races. :o

Bhagwan 26th April 2012 01:39 AM
Hi Greystoke.
With those 2 remaining top 2 selections from 5 Tipsters where 3 tipsters have picked same horse.

Those remaining 2 where all over the place they wouldn't win that often but they sometimes hit some larger prices , so I would not be inclined to lay them.

That 3 from 5 was based on taking the average as per that video .
In this case 2.5 rounded up to 3.

AngryPixie 26th April 2012 09:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
The real gems are to find out where the crowd is consistenly wrong and profit from that.


Doesn't really matter if the public is consistently right or wrong, it's the consistency that matters. We live in the time of betting exchanges. Buyers and sellers - backers and layers. We can do either one or both at the same time. We can back our selections one day and lay them the next.

My best selection method at present has made a whopping lay profit of 3.89 units after 5848 bet's! :D It's amazingly consistent. Since March 12th the expected lay winners is 5213. Observed lay winners is 5214. Bank has increased 415%+ since that date.

Profit follows consistency is my current mantra.

norisk 26th April 2012 09:36 AM
& with the public being wrong ~ 70% of the time, we should be set, no?;)

AngryPixie 26th April 2012 09:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by norisk
& with the public being wrong ~ 70% of the time, we should be set, no?;)


Could be ;) You've got the tools.

http://www.propun.com.au/racing_for...ead.php?t=23709

AngryPixie 5th May 2012 10:47 AM
Crowd ratings for todays Adelaide Guineas. Have included some conservative prices.

1) 100 $ 3.90
2) 76 $ 7.70
3) 83 $ 6.00
4) 90 $ 4.90
5) ---
6) 63 $15.90
7) 54 $55.30
8) 59 $24.60
9) 53 $94.50
10) 96 $ 4.30


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