Actual figures
 

Not sure this helps Mattio

These are some actual figures from a laying system i have been doing.
All were favorites on betfairat sometime in betting

From 20/3/2010 to 20/4/2011

Bets 2013

Accidents 510

Av price 3.7

Laying to liability of $2000

More than 90 % were actually Layed

The balance were all documented(They werent layed because of phone or internet problems)

first column is the number of losers in the group of 70 races, next column is that losing % and third as you stated is the win %.
the two figures at the bottom are the averages

75%sr is not very good in laying.

1annandale1 - thanks for sharing your results mate, looks like you get quite a bit of action there.

woof43 - ok mate, that clears that up for me now thanks.

In the 4 months of testing I have done so far the results are as follows, these are based on win betting the selections as they are TAB prices but you can see how it could transform to a lay system.

70 selections
5 winners
$3.80 avg price

7% win S/R, 93% lay S/R
-79% LOT win betting
Longest run of outs 32

It's only early days as it is such a small sample so I will continue to test for a few more months.

70 selections per month?
My Goodness - you are very patient.
I know I couldnt survive on a single wager every other day.

No moeee this is over a 4 month period. I have multiple backing systems I use that give me enough bets so I thought I would see if I can get a few lay methods to go along with it.

Mattio,

You should do it for each fav. ie 1/$2 + 1/$3 = 0.83333

But from your figures I assume is over 70 races so we can assume odds of 264.6/70 = $3.78 per fav. This means there were 1/3.78 * 70 = 18.52 winners.

If these are tab prices I would be very careful about laying them as betfair prices are not always X% higher. Sometimes they are lower, mostly higher, and sometimes the favs are different.

If they are tab prices then its likely the number of winners should be 1.15% higher which would be 21.3 winners from the 70 races.

Again its based on the assumption this is 70 races for the figures you gave me.

Also my maths may be wrong so always double check it.

Long term yes 30% is probably right .... But 70 races is not long term. It could be in a very large range of 10% - 50% strike rate over only 70 bets.

Using the right methods at the right times for testing can save a lot of heartache and give a much better understanding of when a short term swing above or below the long term strike rate is really what you are seeing.

Thanks UB, I will be testing for a lot longer before placing any bets and also taking into consideration the price difference. I was mainly looking to see if the method was able to find less winners than what could obtained simply by random chance. Would you mind giving me your email, I would like to run something past you.

Cheers,

Matt.

Hi Mattio,
I feel you are taking the right approach by using multiple lay plans.
Just make sure that one does not double up the bet when there is 2 or more selecting the same Horse.
Because it does not mean that it has twice the chance of falling over.


Coming back to your original question as to what the SR of winners would be , the general answer is approx 20%

I think you will find it rather challenging, long term to get it much lower than that 20%.

The general SR of Favs is 30%
Take out all the odds-on shots <=2.00 & its 25%.

Here is an exercise you may like to try .
Grab 10 lots of 10 races in any order = 100 races
Get 10 of your mates to select just 2 Horses to fall over from those 10

I can almost guarantee that it will average out that 2 from 10 will still win instead of lose = 20% win SR

Its amazing how many can win in spite of terrible form or barrier draws ect,.

If you can secure only 20% winning at a max price of 4.00
Then that leaves us with an acceptable profit of 20%+ POT.

You now laughing like a Hyena.