Sorry mate, you are right about Flemington, I just double checked and I was looking at the wrong set of prices. I'll have to do a double check on them all now to make sure I have the rest right.

Just checked yesterday's results.

Casino
1bet +$21
Geelong
3bets -$35
Wagga
1 bet +20.80

Profit $6.80
POT 12.8%

Monday's results were :-

Grafton
1 bet +$17
Kyneton
3 bets -$50

Loss $33
LOT 48.5%

Results since Saturday have been

Sat Outlay $132 Profit $93.70
Sun Outlay $125 Profit $13.70
Mon Outlay $68 Loss $33.00
Tue Outlay $53 Profit $6.80
Wed Outlay $156 Profit $74.60

Therefore since Saturday we have had 1 losing day (Monday) and have made a Profit of $155.80 at POT 29.1%

I would have to say it looks promising even if you bet each day although the "better quality" meetings of Saturday and Wednesday have given the better results on this limited research.

More results are required!

Ive been playing around with this idea but using pre post favs for a couple weeks now, best advice i can offer here is think about race type.

Maiden races can have a high strike rate with favs but are they pre post favs or openers or the ones who start race fav?

Could it be that the better saturday and wednesday results are due to the early races not being all maiden races on those days?

I really like this idea Try Try Again as it factors in the price of the fav and using the target of $20 is easy to execute.

Plus, most days it would be 2 hours work max.

Food for thought indeed!!

My mind is racing now.....

Thanks again!!

The Schmile

I've been thinking about the possible runs of outs, an going on the strike rate of fav's in the first 3 races of around 35%.

One can assume hitting a run of outs of 16-17 during the course of our investments (based on the list Bhagwan provided some time ago)

Mattio, do you have the average loss per run of 3 losses over the course of your research to calculate a starting bank?

The Schmile

Run of outs formula depending on your confidence Log(.005)/Log(1-S/R%)
S/R=strike rate%

Not quite in line with original idea, but I have just ran a test for all days this month so far every venue, first 3 races targeting final SP fav.

Races Bet: 382
Races Won: 159
S.R./Race: 41.6%
% P.O.T. : 4.7%

Best day by far were Sunday and Monday

Sunday 96 bets for 43 winners strike 45% 5 OUTS 12% POT
Monday 39 bets 18 winners strike 46% 3 OUTS 33% POT

Sat showed 96 bets for 41% strike and 12 OUTS 4% POT

Also food for thought.

Enjay

Cheers Wolf,

Unfortunately in my teens I was a the class clown and was most probably flirting with my girlfriend during this maths period, while perusing the form guide with my good eye. :D

Might need a wee bit of help here with the formula :o

The Schmile