OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/index.php)
-   Sports and Gambling (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/forumdisplay.php?f=6)
-   -   The MEADOWS and friends (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=23960)

Raven 28th April 2012 07:28 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Raven
Why is it I had #6 at $1.74 on times? I say that because someone else had #8 top pick over #3 and wasn't fussed on #6 at all. The fact it won means nothing. Track records are meaningless?
Re-ran that with my new averages for Vic, I still had it at $2.36 over #8 $5.05.
Perhaps I'm adjusting to much for checks.

EDIT:
Yep its the adjustments for checks

moeee 28th April 2012 07:31 PM

Its all about opportunity Raven.
Being a slow beginner from Box 6 does nothing to enhance the opportunity of Grigiora Bale from running up to its Record Breaking Form at bendigo.

Most figured that the 8 and I figured the 3 would get every chance from their draw.
It didn't turn out that way though.
This is the part of greyhound form analysis that very few people can get right and if you can get it right more often than not , you are winning.

Raven 28th April 2012 07:43 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by moeee
Its all about opportunity Raven.
Being a slow beginner from Box 6 does nothing to enhance the opportunity of Grigiora Bale from running up to its Record Breaking Form at bendigo.

Most figured that the 8 and I figured the 3 would get every chance from their draw.
It didn't turn out that way though.
This is the part of greyhound form analysis that very few people can get right and if you can get it right more often than not , you are winning.

I know your right of course, but I'm still concerned with getting the base ratings right. I want to know who are the fastest dogs in the race first. Not adjusting for checks had #8 on top but those 2 had a class advantage on the rest.

moeee 28th April 2012 07:56 PM

Its been mentioned before that there are various methods that you could use to line up different tracks and distances.

One is the Track record.
I have found this of limited use.
Another is perhaps an average of the 10 best times recorded.
This is slightly better.

Heres another useful way , but only contains Victorian tracks.
It is the GRV Tier 3 Times.

I'll send it in my next post.
Race coming up :)

moeee 28th April 2012 08:01 PM

Take a Peek

http://www.grv.org.au/Participants/...OwnerGuide.aspx

Raven 28th April 2012 08:45 PM

El Corleone was weak :( good place bet i thought.

Thanks Mo, will read through that after the races.

woof43 28th April 2012 09:17 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Raven
Why is it I had #6 at $1.74 on times? I say that because someone else had #8 top pick over #3 and wasn't fussed on #6 at all. The fact it won means nothing. Track records are meaningless?

These are my Base Times for the above race.
1 30.694 0.182
2 30.758 0.261
3 30.491 0.241
4 30.740 0.247
5 30.971 0.439
6 30.456 0.318
7 30.624 0.335
8 30.332 0.322
Bendigo 500 your adding about 2.126 to the time to adjust to the Meadows, which does give the #6 a slightly better time then the #8. PPl would switch off the #6 when it has missed the start 71% of its races.
The trick with records is to look at the box the dog won from and if its cutting into the corner from wide, this increases the radius and allows the dog a faster than normal time whereas if it had entered the turn stuck on the rails.
Most track records are not from the #1 box but wide off the track or mid track.

Raven 28th April 2012 09:29 PM

The flaw was I was compensating for checks in the formguide. As you mention the #6 strikes trouble and as such was getting a bonus whenever that happened. I've learned something tonight.

My markets look a lot better without it now.

woof43 28th April 2012 09:31 PM

Raven,
If you are just looking at raw speed and your recording your results, gather all the dogs you can and have their average speed listed in a big ranking of best dog on top etc right down to the slowest.

Try doing a percentile rank of a rated race raw times then look at the absolute differences between each dog.
Think about this above paragraph it's golden to those who understand it's power.

woof43 28th April 2012 09:34 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Raven
The flaw was I was compensating for checks in the formguide. As you mention the #6 strikes trouble and as such was getting a bonus whenever that happened. I've learned something tonight.

My markets look a lot better without it now.


with comments in the form indicating interference, you select a dog with a lot of starts 80-100 isolate the starts with no "c1-c12" then you have a base time then group the C1-C5 look at those times avg so on an so this will give you some time parameters to work within.


All times are GMT +10. The time now is 01:02 PM.

Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.