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-   -   Meadows Quaddie (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=24049)

moeee 9th May 2012 07:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by moeee
EDIT: I just noticed the poor rating you have given #3 in Race 6.
Surely its last start win at Geelong is more than useful time?


Obviously my glasses need replacement or at least cleaning , or I am simply getting past my use by date.

woof43 9th May 2012 07:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by moeee
Good Luck with that Woof43.
I swear I won't be drawn again into Races I have no business messing with.

WARRNAMBOOL Race 6

4 ICEMAN RAIKKONEN $5.5
3 MISTER NORRIS $5.7
6 BLACK DODGE $6
2 TANDAR LASS $6.5
8 ETHEL BALE $9
1 PERFECT RIO $10
7 MONICA'S HOT $11
5 SWEET BETH $70

How do you wager here.
Hard to take short Odds about the top selection.
Just as hard to ignore it.
I suggest a very small win Wager on the Overlay from the top 4 selections.
And double it if it is #3

The #4 has had 3 substantial spell in its career after last one of 80 odd days it never won a race, now its had 118 day spell I leave it up to you...
If it wins short priced good luck to whomever wagers on it

moeee 9th May 2012 07:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by woof43
makes it easier for me, to line them all up, plus I need to see the absolute difference in % when I do a percentile rank.

if you understand


Well no - I don't understand percentile.

But are these the Times the animals would run at The Meadows?
Because if they are , then they are meaningless.
Because TANDAR LASS can't run 525 metres and will get a poor Rating.
But over the 450 , it is much better suited and has , in my opinion , a much better rating than what youhave given it.

woof43 9th May 2012 07:49 PM
Moeee I only posted finish times, as you said the figures I post make no sense to you, if I posted the sectionals it's a different story as you know you need to be close to the lead to show your best.

moeee 9th May 2012 07:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by woof43
The #4 has had 3 substantial spell in its career after last one of 80 odd days it never won a race, now its had 118 day spell I leave it up to you...
If it wins short priced good luck to whomever wagers on it


Excellent Comment Woof43
Whether it turns out to be the case is irrelevant.
I need to develop the courage to go with a firm decision like this instead of sitting on the fence.
This is what is stopping me from reaching my target.

moeee 9th May 2012 07:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by woof43
Moeee I only posted finish times, as you said the figures I post make no sense to you

So are these finish times average , peak , mean , adjusted , raw , expected or something else?

woof43 9th May 2012 08:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by moeee
Well no - I don't understand percentile.

when you compare each dog to your database
example
30.601 0.266
30.632 0.285 difference 0.019

In a ideal world I should see that same absolute difference in the percentage of the amounts wagered on those dogs. (in the above example the #2 should have had 2% more money wagered on it, then the #3. Thats in the ideal world

But what we need to do is run 1000,s of races and do some comparison analysis, to find exactly how Joe Public handles this situation

moeee 9th May 2012 08:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by woof43
But what we need to do is run 1000,s of races and do some comparison analysis, to find exactly how Joe Public handles this situation


No
What we need to do now is move on.

I'll be posting a Market for race 7 and that will be me for tonight.

lomaca 9th May 2012 08:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by moeee
No
What we need to do now is move on.

I'll be posting a Market for race 7 and that will be me for tonight.
I apologise for butting in moeee.

I do not consider myself an imbecile or ignorant person but for the life of me, having followed Woof's posting I have absolutely no idea what he is on about?

I'm sure he is so clear in his mind about it that he can't imagine anyone else not understanding it.

As you stated (paraphrasing here), "if you want to help be clear about it!"

I'm trying to analyse my selections to see if I can come up with something useful.

Good luck

woof43 9th May 2012 08:48 PM
wbl race 7
 
1 30.455
2 30.156
3 30.582
4 30.580
5 30.623
6 30.628
7 30.219
8 30.746


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