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-   -   develop a system (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=24187)

norisk 25th May 2012 11:37 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Barny
and better than 4 / 1 should be a good filter.


Not 'good' barny, it's much better than that.

6 bets per month? 'patience of jobe' springs to mind, I would last 5 minutes;)

darkydog2002 25th May 2012 11:44 AM

A valid Point.

Barny 25th May 2012 11:59 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by norisk

6 bets per month? 'patience of jobe' springs to mind, I would last 5 minutes;)

and for the life of me, i cannot get a LSW 7 days to show a decent POT. nor the topweight and No. 1 systems posted on here over the years from partypooper

Try Try Again 25th May 2012 12:12 PM

Hi Barny,

What do you consider a decent POT%?

I am currently using a Last Start Winner system (Saturdays only) showing a 38% POT since 26/11/11.

Barny 25th May 2012 12:47 PM

until i got this database i thought a decent POT was in the order of 20%

i have 7 systems with a POT ranging from 44% to 92% based on unitab figures and not one of them a LSW system or a topweight / TAB 1 system. mind you i've been following them for years / decades using herald sun formguides, so i haven't just hit a few buttons and the 'holy grail' has appeared.

Barny 25th May 2012 12:49 PM

i dont know how to find a method that would give you a POT during the weekdays unless the 'price' of the horse was a key component.

moeee 25th May 2012 01:13 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Barny
i have 7 systems with a POT ranging from 44% to 92% based on unitab figures

how many selections and how many races?

I mean , as an extreme example , if in a system you only have 6 selections in 12 qualifying races , then the sample for that particular system is way too small , irregardless if your database went back to when ADAM wore nappies.

Barny 25th May 2012 01:25 PM

moeee i have already posted this .....

"I have a suite of 7 systems and all combined they give approx 6 bets per month and a POT of 66% ..... take it or leave it as to whether you believe it. I haven't punted it so far."

7 systems
Selections: 887
Winners; 170
S/R: 19%
Return: 1472.60
Profit: 585.60
POT: 66%

database goes waaaay back but you are correct in wanting far more selections. I'd be happier if the selections totalled 5,000, but the database goes back to 1999

Barny 25th May 2012 01:45 PM

moeee, ive got a prizemoney system where it goes from LOTof 12% to a POT of 31% ..... A HUGE turnaround for a simple fiter of just looking at Saturday Class .. Many would nod their head in agreement. Party's systems picked up the importance of this filter too. Incidentally, a little tinker with selected Api rating and days since last start (all logical) got this beaut to 71%. It has 12 rules but they're all compatible with each other and with one main rule "A MYTH BUSTER".

moeee 25th May 2012 01:58 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Barny
I haven't punted it so far."

Good Boy.Keep resisting the temptation.
And don't post any future selections because we all know what the Forum Curse does to any attempts to show how good our System is.

Thank you for posting those stats for me Barny.
I have read a few ideas on backfitting - they basically boil down to it giving False Hopes.
But you seem to be having Fun , and as Bhagwan says, its not about Winning - Its about having Fun

I'll just go and have a slice of bread and glass of milk now.
Cheers Barny.


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