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-   -   an interesting article from the Mars Chronicle (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=24348)

Barny 14th June 2012 08:08 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by gunny72
Of course a few punters may hit on to a combination of factors that virtually no one else currently uses but at some stage punters will use a similar combination and the winning system will deteriorate like my place % Method did.

Your place% criteria would always been seen as a big factor for form analysis, it just increased in it's popularity to a reasonably small degree.

I'm looking for factors that eliminate horses from contention, or at the very least are dismissed by punters.

I'm not looking to splitting hairs on what have always been popular filters. Weight is another one to have undergone a re-rating by punters over the years.

Shaun 14th June 2012 08:38 AM

Weight and Class are the 2 biggest things to have changed in the last few years with pace being a contender for the newest thing.

Barny 14th June 2012 09:42 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun
Weight and Class are the 2 biggest things to have changed in the last few years with pace being a contender for the newest thing.

We're only talking weight and class filters in a marginal sense here tho' aren't we?

gunny72 14th June 2012 10:36 AM

Place % strike rates are the same today as they were 20 years ago but the odds have shortened. There used to be lots of $50+ winners from the top three place rankings. Now these longshots seem to be around the $20-$30 mark as more punters back them.

I too am investigating an approach that has not been highlighted and the results are encouraging but requires nerves of steel to follow and not waiver.

I agree totally, Barny, that one must use totally different factors (and not just different weightings of common factors) from the majority just as DS did with his weight ratings but even they faltered pricewise once the idea caught on generally.

Barny 14th June 2012 11:02 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by gunny72
I agree totally, Barny, that one must use totally different factors (and not just different weightings of common factors)
Spot on, EXACTLY what I was trying desperately to convey, but you've done it much better gunny72

Barny 14th June 2012 11:08 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by gunny72
I too am investigating an approach that has not been highlighted and the results are encouraging but requires nerves of steel to follow and not waiver.
I worry abut your statement of needing nerves of steel ..... You cannot afford to miss even ONE winner when following a longshot system. There was a beaut thread on here about a longshot system, very enlightening, but it was obvious that if you had missed that one winner, you were gone for all money. I hope your approach is unambiguous, black and white selections, no grey areas gunny72. Then you're in with a show!


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