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-   -   A starting point to back longshots (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=24631)

Merriguy 25th July 2012 07:05 AM

Quite an interesting idea, UB!!

I notice, however, that you haven't strictly followed the rule of two tipsters being necessary --- or have I misunderstood (quite likely).

For example the last race at Townsville. Great result, but only one tipster???

Merriguy 25th July 2012 07:12 AM

Whoops! My mistake. Sorry.

I did not go to 2KY site --- was only looking at what was available on the Unitab site. Good luck today.

Chrome Prince 25th July 2012 11:10 AM

This might be an idea for running doubles or exotics etc.
However, as soon as a run of favourites or top market horses has a winning streak, it'll be curtains. 85% of the time you'll get beaten, so the odds need to be very good (better than Betfair).

Lord Greystoke 25th July 2012 11:17 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
This might be an idea for running doubles or exotics etc.
However, as soon as a run of favourites or top market horses has a winning streak, it'll be curtains. 85% of the time you'll get beaten, so the odds need to be very good (better than Betfair).


Just to confirm - are you saying that once a winning streak occurs, much less chance of it continuing from there OR odds get trouched once the pattern of wins is out there (or both??)

Cheers LG

Barny 25th July 2012 01:43 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Star
Give the man the Cigar.

My thinking would be that it would have to be an outsiders type system.

Star

I disagree .... you could have the weight of money tipping one horse into an area where it's well and truly overbet, say $4.00 in to $2.50 and then the value is elsewhere. It may have been the opening 2nd fav that's blown out the gate to now be paying $7.00. The fav looks home on every aspect of form you look for, it's got winning form, but then why was the 2nd fav so short early on ??

Just one aspect of getting value without going for the longshot all the time.

Barny 25th July 2012 01:51 PM

I've got years and years of Herald Sun form guides for Saturday Metro and the results. I'll trawl through a few over the next week or so and give you a heads up. I'm thinking it mightn't work so well with City class, but won't know till I look. So I'm looking for horses that don't appear in the tables as being tipped by any tipster for 1st, 2nd or 3rd. The opposite of what most would do .....

UselessBettor 25th July 2012 03:55 PM

Murray Bridge race 5 Today : $19.80 (tatts)

But 67 selections today so a losing day.


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