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-   -   The Folly of Using ONLY Popular Filters (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=24736)

TheSchmile 7th August 2012 10:01 PM

Hi Barny,

Three filters put this method into profit on UB's tester:
Leader, Pacemaker / Barrier 6+ / Use betfair

Out 97 In 115

Garyf,

I'm assuming your tongue is firmly in cheek with your comments?

If not, I disagree that all ratings systems lead to overbet favourites. If you understand how the ratings are formulated and their various strengths and weaknesses, you can find value in my experience.

garyf 7th August 2012 10:56 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by garyf
Interesting posts and replies there guys.

So let me ask this question so i know i am on the right path here,
Doesn't matter this thread or others using ratings be it weight, class, speed, etc,
Leads to backing overbet favorites and no matter what we use as filters,
We must all of us lose in the long term is this correct?.

And using ratings that are free is even worse like say skyform, and their panels,
A.A.P prepost, Unitab, Don Scott etc ,all these eventually no matter what we do will lead us to the poor house have i got this right or am i wrong.

Cheers.
Garyf.
Hi TS.

I actually have very firm beliefs the question i ,
Have asked of others, is for people,
To either say yes or no to the post and maybe a reason.
Either you agree or disagree.

Just re-read the first 6 words and last 9 words in my post my opinion,
Is nowhere to be seen just a simple question.

You say no that's great.

I am sure reading how the selection is obtained,
In the prepost system, and other articles on L.G'S
Quaddy thread to T.T.A. where i stand,of course,
That's just me, doesn't make it right or wrong.

Cheers.

TheSchmile 7th August 2012 11:40 PM

Hi Garyf,

I find that the DS ratings work well on certain types of races and the R + S weight ratings on entirely different races in my experience.

So to answer your question completely seriously, I disagree that following free ratings will lead you to the poor house. There are various ways to interpret/filter different typres of ratings and find an edge. For me, it's being selective and betting big mostly on Saturdays with the ratings I use.

garyf 7th August 2012 11:50 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheSchmile
Hi Garyf,

I find that the DS ratings work well on certain types of races and the R + S weight ratings on entirely different races in my experience.

So to answer your question completely seriously, I disagree that following free ratings will lead you to the poor house. There are various ways to interpret/filter different typres of ratings and find an edge. For me, it's being selective and betting big mostly on Saturdays with the ratings I use.
Yep couldn't agree more.

Now i have done it, gone and given.
My opinion on my own question.
When i promised myself i wouldn't.

Cheers.
Garyf.

garyf 7th August 2012 11:52 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by garyf
Yep couldn't agree more.

Now i have done it, gone and given.
My opinion on my own question.
When i promised myself i wouldn't.

Cheers.
Garyf.
Forgot the icon above the qoute.

Cheers.

Shaun 7th August 2012 11:57 PM

I know i have only been working with Skyform for about a week but from what i have seen they may be best if you select the panels that you feel more comfortable with.

When i design ratings i try to set it up so each bit of good form enhances the overall prospect and i am in the belief that if you have enough good form on your side it can over turn the bad, a lot of punters look no further than the 3 form figures or the jockey and maybe a couple other bits of key form.

I think Skyform use completely different techniques for each panel that often don't enhance a runners prospects but can harm it.

TheSchmile 8th August 2012 07:04 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by garyf
Yep couldn't agree more.

Now i have done it, gone and given.
My opinion on my own question.
When i promised myself i wouldn't.

Cheers.
Garyf.

Ha ha Garyf,

What can you do??!! :D

Not trying to toot your horn too much Garyf, however the best advice I can give to anyone wishing to conquer the ratings world, is to spend a day or two trawling through Garyf's numerous posts on this forum and gather as much info as possible. Not just the pre-post thread but his ratings thoughts over the best part of a few years. The answers you seek are right here on the forum.

*No disrespect to any other forumites, as there are numerous quality posts on the subject of ratings and all things racing. God love ya's all!!

"Racing tragics, UNITE!!!!" :)

Vortech 8th August 2012 07:30 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by garyf
Interesting posts and replies there guys.

So let me ask this question so i know i am on the right path here,
Doesn't matter this thread or others using ratings be it weight, class, speed, etc,
Leads to backing overbet favorites and no matter what we use as filters,
We must all of us lose in the long term is this correct?.

And using ratings that are free is even worse like say skyform, and their panels,
A.A.P prepost, Unitab, Don Scott etc ,all these eventually no matter what we do will lead us to the poor house have i got this right or am i wrong.

Cheers.
Garyf.

I think you need to be confident with testing your rating price is correct.
I have done lots of testing and now know over 5000 races my $2.00 rating chance wins 50% of the time (give or take 0.5%). This means if I can get $2.20 its worth a bet. (based on a 100% market price)

Often you'll find there is no value in the short prices and most of the time I'm only betting where the favourite is $4.00 but it depends on your rated price. I am yet to isolate the data by venue as I need more data to be confident of my strike rate vs rating price.

I don't see the point of a rating system having a horse priced at $2.00 when you test and find you only win 40% of the time long term.

Since your help in ratings I've been backing 3 horses per race and find I have a 51% strike rate with a $6.57 avg dividend.

garyf posts are a good read!

Try Try Again 8th August 2012 08:49 AM

Barny,

Herald Sun Ratings = Unitab Ratings

Vortech 8th August 2012 08:58 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Try Try Again
Barny,

Herald Sun Ratings = Unitab Ratings

Learn something new everyday. So Herald Sun = Unitab = AAP Form Analysier.


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