It's all the the first post of this thread guys ;)

http://www.propun.com.au/racing_for...?t=23914&page=1

If we could predict the top 5 chances and get odds over the predicted chance then we would show a profit. But its not likely we could do this.

Its an interesting way at looking at it. If you can select 4-5 horses and think they will cover 80% of the market then treat them as one bet and the odds as the dutched prices. So if you could back all of them for $70 then it would be value and worth doing. If you could back them for $90 then you pass on the race. A lot of people do this for various reasons. The best reason being consistentcy. You get lots of small wins and few losses. (100/70 = odds of $1.42).

Yep a Group Overlay

UB, thanks for pointing out the space hole.. a galaxy of possibilities just beyond my somewhat feeble attempt at fuzzy logic.

Pixie, that article is gold - I am 'eating' it for breakfast.


LG

Please remember that most professional money managers on Wall Street would give an organ to consistently achieve a 15% return. In fact, in many cases, a vital organ!

A sobering thought but it helps one remain realistic I guess.

LG

When the odds go down regarding a particular system punters will tend to drop that system and so the odds will rise again and the cycle will again repeat itself. I have found the cyclic nature of using place percent to be in the order of 5 to 10 years and good odds will return but never to their former glory and of course they fall away again fairly quickly. Amazingly the strike rate has been consistent.

Sadly we lost Dick Mitchell a few years back due to a dicky vital organ.

The numbers can be massaged to suit your needs i.e. 67% of top three, but you will need to work in a fudge factor of at least the 10% Dick describes.

The difference between Wall St and punting, the guys in the boiler room can get set for millions, if not billions, we are restricted to pennies by comparison before we are shut down.

Otherwise I'd be hopping a plane to New York city and showing them how to make huge percentage returns with almost no risk, without leaving their homes.
Alas, we are left to play dodgeball with the bookies for pennies.

I personally think dutching is over rated in the true form and has little value to add.

I still think multiple runners in a race is a good idea but betting to prices with overlays and underlays is a better idea.

I do bet multiple runners and have not found the best option as yet but will avoid dutching as i hate having small amounts on my bigger overlays.

At least it wasn't a vital dicky organ