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-   -   Testing Barrier positions (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=24859)

lomaca 28th August 2012 08:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Luxinterior
Happy Valley
Inside six gates 1000m and 1200m.
Don't know if data is easily available or not.

Also, rail placement could have an effect on your results on some tracks.
I doubt that because they all still follow the same path.

I'd would rather go with UB's idea of different starting positions, like how far to the first turn etc.

It makes a lot of difference in greyhound racing.

The bottom line is, so far I could not find any winning BP but there is a definite % difference between barriers, not enough to profit from by itself, but in some situations it could be a decisive factor between backing a winner or a second.

UselessBettor 28th August 2012 08:03 PM
Actually the odds do matter.

They give us a real indication of the horses chances (which are affected by the barrier unfotunatly). What we should do for analysing the barrier at each distance is to get the chances of each horse winning (sum them up) and compare the difference to the actual wins.

This will tell you a much better idea of if the barrier gives an advantage. It will also show you whether there are any anomolies which can be taken advantage of by looking at sum vs actual ( barrier 12 or wider on a 1000m sprint at Hobart <--I just made this up and have no idea).

lomaca 28th August 2012 08:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Perhaps we are looking at it from the wrong viewpoint. What makes a barrier better ? the Odds returned by the horse are probably irrelevant as the barrier is probably taken into account by the punters.

You should probably concentrate on strike rate to be purely objective. But this doesn't help you much if its already taken into account by everyone else betting on the race.
I take the BP into account in my ratings.

I undertook this exercise only to find out if a claim I saw on this or on an other forum had merit.

lomaca 28th August 2012 08:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Actually the odds do matter.

They give us a real indication of the horses chances (which are affected by the barrier unfotunatly). What we should do for analysing the barrier at each distance is to get the chances of each horse winning (sum them up) and compare the difference to the actual wins.

This will tell you a much better idea of if the barrier gives an advantage. It will also show you whether there are any anomolies which can be taken advantage of by looking at sum vs actual ( barrier 12 or wider on a 1000m sprint at Hobart <--I just made this up and have no idea).
Do you honestly believe that there can be much difference between barriers 7, 8 and 9?

1 and 10 no doubt!

UselessBettor 28th August 2012 08:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lomaca
Do you honestly believe that there can be much difference between barriers 7, 8 and 9?

1 and 10 no doubt!

No I agree, but by taking into account the horses chances vs actual results you are finding where the value may lie by eliminating (to a degree) the chances of longshots giving you false findings.

lomaca 28th August 2012 08:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
No I agree, but by taking into account the horses chances vs actual results you are finding where the value may lie by eliminating (to a degree) the chances of longshots giving you false findings.
True but that wasn't the purpose of this exercise, ONLY the barrier position someone claimed made the difference.

Luxinterior 28th August 2012 08:51 PM
A track where there is a short run to the first bend is the 1000m start at Colac in Victoria.
Not a heap of TAB meetings there so not sure if there'll be sufficient data or not.

lomaca 28th August 2012 09:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Luxinterior
A track where there is a short run to the first bend is the 1000m start at Colac in Victoria.
Not a heap of TAB meetings there so not sure if there'll be sufficient data or not.
Only 11 for both the 1000 and 1100 M

Since nobody can provide a genuine winning track/distance/barrier combo track to test, (or very wise to keep it to themselves) I close this.

I will run the test again and make a csv file and put it up for download in a few days.

lomaca 29th August 2012 01:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vortech
Doomben 1010m barrier one
Go here:http://www.mediafire.com/?myfiles

Vortech 29th August 2012 01:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lomaca

This is a free cloud storage?


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