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-   -   Testing A New Lay Method (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=25162)

Toil 3rd October 2012 02:44 PM

Michael, how can you tell they are mostly in the favoured section of the market?

michaelg 3rd October 2012 03:20 PM

Toil, I rate each qualifying race as per the CP and $ algorithyms. From the bottom half I then select the outright best-ranked in the Unitab ratings. When testing the selections many of them were at single figures.

Fortunately today there have so far been 7 smiles from 7 selections but unfortunately the selections have been somewhat disappointing - only a total of $23.17 which more or less equates to an average price of around $10.

Hopefully the success continues because of the high amount of action.

Toil 3rd October 2012 03:37 PM

Thanks for sharing that Michael, when you lay and they get beaten do you win different amounts on each runner?

Like if I was to lay 3 runners with a $5 stake on each wouldn't I win the same amount on each if they was beaten?

michaelg 3rd October 2012 03:47 PM

Yes, I win different amounts when beaten because I lay them not on the exchange but S.P.

The method had an accident - Dombeen 7/7. It was very close,even the race caller couldn't separate them. If I had laid on the exchange the method would be in profit, but doing that can be dangerous.

After 12 races the loss is $4.26

michaelg 3rd October 2012 06:53 PM

Both selections were beaten for a profit of $5.99.


The CP and $ system had two accidents for a loss of $21.19.

However doing the reverse i.e looking at the top half of the CP and $ total points and then selecting the worst of these in the Unitab rankings would have produced a 100% success rate, and a few of them even started as favourites.

So from tomorrow I'll give it a go.

michaelg 4th October 2012 10:13 AM

Three selections today for the CP lay method. So far there's been 13 selections for 13 smiles for a pleasant profit of $64.03 laying each one for a liability of $33.

Bendigo
8/9

Rocky
1/4
7/9


My testing Lay method is pitting the Tele fave against the Unitab rankings. The divvies are quite good and they have all started at single figures. There's yet to be an accident.

Gosford
6/2

Bendigo
3/1
5/2 (currently odds-on)

Rocky
4/4
6/4

trifectaric 4th October 2012 11:03 AM

HI

Michaelg i am using your method in my quaddies trebles to cut down the number of horses i take, but in the other exotics i put them in for 2nd and 3rd, 4th.
if they are in my numbers.
yesterday i put doomben race 7 number 7 in because of its price.
if they are short i leave them out but if over $4.20 they go in.
good luck and let the good times keep rolling.

cheers Rick

michaelg 4th October 2012 06:59 PM

Trifectaric, I hope you had a good day and did not omit Bendigo 8/9 from your quaddies because it should not have been a lay selection because it was resuming from a spell. As I mistakenly listed it as a selection I have to include it in the results.

From the Tele/Unitab method there was one accident from the 5 selections for a profit of $8.41.

trifectaric 4th October 2012 08:44 PM

no i had it in on price but i did not win the quaddie at bendigo.
thanks Rick

michaelg 5th October 2012 10:47 AM

6 selections for the CP lay method. I've double checked that none are resuming.

Moonee Valley
3/5
5/7
6/6

Ipswich
7/2

Port Mac
5/1
6/8
8/7


5 selections for the Tele/Unitab lay method

Port Mac
3/12
7/3
8/6

Nowra
6/1

Ipswich
2/2


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