Looks like a better lay strategy vrs old Gretchin?

LG

Yes probably a lay strategy rather than a backing one. I do tend to get things backwards.

Murtoa Race 4

No 4 lower on BF + the fav

I was thinking of starting a new thread on this but this seems an appropriate place. For the last 10 days or so I have been backing horses which are under 7.0 where the betfair price is lower than the bookies fixed odds in the last 3 mins of betting. The hit rate has been 40% and the profit on $50 bets is over $600.
There are not a lot of them, particularly on the weaker mtgs but since I watch most races for my other strategies it has been interesting. I have read many times that the horses which qualify under this criterion do well but have never tried it before since it would be pretty boring as a standalone method. Yesterday there was not a single selection but usually there are 2 or 3, with more on metro mtgs.

Thanks SpeedyBen.

I guess that's a little different to what I was trying to get at with two different favs but it goes along with a few other suggestions here (particularly michaelg) where if a horse on BF is under the tote price then it may be a goer.

As you say there wouldn't be much action.

That $600 you talked about. Is that backing on BF or with the bookie? I'm assuming you would soon be banned if making that kind of money with a bookie.

I have all of this data going back a few months. I did look into it a while abck and it was a long term loser. I will look into it again and report back.

The bet is with bookies but I have an account with many so I switch around at random. The only one who has curtailed me is the Paddy Pwoer owned one in darwin but that was a while ago and they still let me bet fixed odds with them.
There was one bet today after I posted earlier and the bookie I was looking at was betting 7.00 on a horse which was 4.4 on BF. Must have been a mistake as after my bet was accepted it came up as 4.2 with the bookie. The bookie's guardian angel was at work however and the horse never looked a winner.

I would be interested to know that UB.

This is the sort of thing that is good about forums like this.

Some naive person (me :oops: ) puts out a hare brained proposal and someone comes along and either confirms it or shoots it down.

That's okay as now I just move onto the next thing (once I can think of something :rolleyes: ).

ok I took a look at this and only looked at favs.

It showed a slight profit overall for laying to a set amount.

Straight Bet $100
Test Range 1: $453
Test Range 2: $-610
Test Range 3:$-2100

Bet to an Amount: $100 profit
Test Range 1: $-356.03
Test Range 2:$-331.10
Test Range 3:$-725

Lay Bet $100
Test Range 1:$-2066.50
Test Range 2: $-78
Test Range 3:$1022.00

Lay to Amount $100
Test Range 1: $-68.00
Test Range 2:$95.27
Test Range 3:$336.26

These periods covered the last 4 months of data in 10,000 horses per test range. (not all 10,000 made the criteria though).


Laying to a set amount is the only profitable method.

Thanks for those stats UB.

I was thinking along the lines of backing so there you go. :rolleyes: