OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/index.php)
-   Horse Race Betting Systems (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/forumdisplay.php?f=10)
-   -   Money for Jam? (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=26801)

Chrome Prince 15th July 2013 07:22 PM

It also answers the question, is late money smart money?
;)

darkydog2002 15th July 2013 07:34 PM

Yep Chrome.
Will try the system out tomorrow.

Gees.It might actually work ?

Chrome Prince 15th July 2013 08:23 PM

It comes down to certain money for certain price ranges and certain fluctuation percentages. You can't back all of them that move a bit, or you'll be left out of pocket.

e.g
3 - Magnifisio 2.25, 2.35, 1.8, 1.75 WON
7 - Dark Delight 1.6, 1.65, 1.5, 1.45 WON
6 - Monkstone 4.2, 4.2, 3.1, 3 2ND
8 - Midnight Glory 7, 7, 6, 5.5 3RD
1 - Hai Lil 5, 5.5, 4.6, 4.4 3RD
7 - Pillar Of Creation 10, 11, 8, 7.5 WON
10 - Brave Prince 15, 15, 8, 7.5 UNP
13 - Loot 'n' Run 6, 6, 3.3, 3.2 UNP
7 - Let's Be A Star 11, 11, 7.5, 7 WON
18 - Emblems 3, 3.5, 2.6, 2.5 3RD
4 - Cape Kidnappers 1.6, 1.6, 1.5, 1.45 WON
4 - Nude Secrets 6, 6, 5, 4.8 3RD
7 - Keep It Moist 8, 8, 5, 4.8 UNP
6 - Scalaire 10, 10, 7.5, 7 UNP
4 - Amiconi Originale 5, 5, 4.4, 4 2ND
5 - Natural Disaster 4.2, 4.6, 2.9, 3 UNP
5 - Angelology 2.7, 2.8, 2, 2.2 WON
2 - Beyond Infinity 7, 7, 4.6, 4.4 2ND
7 - Komodo 5, 5, 3.8, 3.6 3RD
10 - Value As 10, 11, 9, 8.5 WON

20 selections
7 winners
8 placings
Win Return at worst SP Fluctuation $29.85
POT 49.25%
35% Win strike rate
75% Place strike rate

Look for the most money at the shortest odds, and anything backed in from double figures into single figures.

stugots 15th July 2013 08:33 PM

CP, is Scone one of your leaders tracks?

Might be a great pointer when such solid shorteners jump out & lead at your leader tracks.

ianian 15th July 2013 08:35 PM

Who knows
 
I noticed that the 3 bigger winners opened at $10 or better and shortened in under $10 same as last sat and got rid of a lot of losses.

ianian 15th July 2013 09:20 PM

Just read the names it is last sat daaa.

Lord Greystoke 15th July 2013 09:46 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by ianian
I noticed that the 3 bigger winners opened at $10 or better and shortened in under $10 same as last sat and got rid of a lot of losses.
Are we talking tote today at Scone?

LG

Rinconpaul 16th July 2013 05:28 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by darkydog2002
Fav number 12 eh.
Theres a system right there.

1 + 2 are 3

Choose the 1st 3 in the betting in races 1 - 3

The bet is the 1 that comes in 3 times in the betting.

Mein Gott I,m good to you blokes

It will be "Mein Gott" if it ever occurs Darky. A steamer is usually the 2nd fluc is less than the Open OR the 2nd Fluc matches the Open & the next one or two price flucs are less than the Open. e.g. 5.5 4.6 OR 5.5, 5.5, 4.5 OR 5.5, 5.5, 4.5, 4

I've yet to find a steamer that comes in 3 Price Flucs like 5.5, 5, 4.5, 4 not in the last few days anyway. Even if you Back the steamers they still only win about 30% of races.
Might have more success Backing them to run a Place and Laying them to not win.

RP

Rinconpaul 16th July 2013 06:44 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince


20 selections
7 winners
8 placings
Win Return at worst SP Fluctuation $29.85
POT 49.25%
35% Win strike rate
75% Place strike rate

Look for the most money at the shortest odds, and anything backed in from double figures into single figures.

Just to satisfy my curiosity , I did the exercise using rules:
If steamer odds/on Back for Win
If steamer not odds/on Lay to lose and Back for a Place

Result: 29% POT

Those longer priced horses brought home the bacon for the Backers. Might have been a different story if one of the odds/on horses failed to win?
RP

darkydog2002 16th July 2013 09:39 AM

To be honest I wont use this at all.
To wait for a horse to shorten before betting is ridiculous.
If my asessed price is $7.50 and its now $10 I accept the price greedily.

Imagine the other scenario.
"gee its $10 now .I better wait until its $3.

Lock me up in my little padded cell.


All times are GMT +10. The time now is 05:51 AM.

Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.