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-   -   Will this fly? (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=27556)

evajb001 18th November 2013 11:51 AM

SB, so you've got a set of ratings you receive and it makes a regular POT just by backing them if they are also say in the top 3 favourites (or something similar)?

Sounds similar to something i'm working towards although not sure it will be as simple for me. Sounds like a pretty easy method to add to your aresnal though :)

SpeedyBen 18th November 2013 12:31 PM

Top rated and outright fav in the race. It could work also by looking at the case where the top rater is in the top two or three actual fav for the race. I haven't tested that though. It has increased the favs hit rate from around 30% to 40% in effect. The ratings are dirt cheap and I bought them originally just so that i had something to research in my spare time.
I'm working on seeing how a set of free ratings go but I can't get back records for those so it's a live test with small bets.

evajb001 18th November 2013 01:10 PM

Sounds like a good little money spinner if it stays consistent, i assume you could use some kind of staking plan if you wanted to and boost the profits.

I'll let you know how I get on with my ratings, just finalising at the moment and then backtesting from 1 June 2013 to today for starters.

SpeedyBen 18th November 2013 01:23 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by evajb001
Sounds like a good little money spinner if it stays consistent, i assume you could use some kind of staking plan if you wanted to and boost the profits.

I'll let you know how I get on with my ratings, just finalising at the moment and then backtesting from 1 June 2013 to today for starters.
I'm not good with staking plans but I would be happy to hear any that might fit. From the time I started testing the hit rate has stayed within 1% of 40. I've tested random dates back to May. The ratings people offer a free month trial so you may like to have a look at them, JB.

Chrome Prince 19th November 2013 05:09 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by stugots
so pointy end back tote & lay bf, should be simple right;)


Not so simple.
In theory this should work, but with levies and commission, it's a losing propect.
Had the same idea myself but ran it over thousands of results at the shorter end. End result, big banana :(

UselessBettor 19th November 2013 05:18 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
Not so simple.
In theory this should work, but with levies and commission, it's a losing propect.
Had the same idea myself but ran it over thousands of results at the shorter end. End result, big banana :(

Exactly.

SpeedyBen 19th November 2013 06:10 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
End result, big banana :(
You rang?

beton 19th November 2013 10:25 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
Not so simple.
In theory this should work, but with levies and commission, it's a losing propect.
Had the same idea myself but ran it over thousands of results at the shorter end. End result, big banana :(

A 5-7% advantage lost with a 6.5% levy and commission. and no real certainty.

Were you using BFSP lay results.

stugots 20th November 2013 06:49 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
Not so simple.
In theory this should work, but with levies and commission, it's a losing propect.
Had the same idea myself but ran it over thousands of results at the shorter end. End result, big banana :(



Indeed CP, hence the wink

SpeedyBen 17th December 2013 04:23 PM

Update
 
Well, it's flying along a bit better than expected. After 17 days botting my 40 unit bank has increased by 49% after commission. Simple, but effective, so far. Enter the top raters into the bot and let it place the bet if it is also BF fav just before the jump.


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