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-   -   Efficiency of placing a bet? (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=27802)

Puntz 23rd January 2014 07:01 PM

Quote:
I just wanted to know what other solutions are out there.


No, I did not misunderstand,
as a hobby bet sender, offer your current working solution ?

For example,
The tatts netbetpro and excel all coded up with no VBA passwords, no tricks or fancy dressings in a ready to go real deal open source package ?

All the punter has to make sure is the txt file between excel and netbetpro is working right, with a trigger and support from qualified programmers,

Rinconpaul 23rd January 2014 07:45 PM

1 Attachment(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Ocho
RP, Can you automate SOME of the betting with your bot or do ALL the systems rely on the bets being made at the very last second?


On reflection, I should have named this thread, 'Know your limitations, and work within them'.

TO, I am developing new bottable systems and set to test shortly. My main worksheet is an excel 'blackbox', following on from my create a 'blackbox' thread. I break all my systems up into variants to suit no. of runners amongst other variables. The calculations of each variant appear in the top row, that's frozen, so it can be viewed at all times

I call it my 'dashboard'. As I enter data on the current prices of potential selections these cells across the top row update and show me the % chance of winning (as in first past the post). As I'm a Layer, I'm looking for variants with the best optimised chance of losing.

So to answer both you and Michal, my methods are partly automated.

Michal 23rd January 2014 07:50 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Puntz
No, I did not misunderstand,
as a hobby bet sender, offer your current working solution ?

For example,
The tatts netbetpro and excel all coded up with no VBA passwords, no tricks or fancy dressings in a ready to go real deal open source package ?

All the punter has to make sure is the txt file between excel and netbetpro is working right, with a trigger and support from qualified programmers,
Hi Puntz,

While auto-betting is a hobby of mine, my betting is not, Im quite serious about that! My solution has taken me literally thousands of hours over the last 5 years to create and perfect and constitutes one of the ways an edge can be derived. And as such I can't offer it beyond that which is already implemented in Axis, Im sure you understand.

I am still interested if anyone else knows of different agencies with API, other then the ones I mentioned previously. Im not after code or spreadsheets, I'm only asking to know what else is out there.

Thanks

UselessBettor 23rd January 2014 09:13 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Michal
Hi Puntz,.

I am still interested if anyone else knows of different agencies with API, other then the ones I mentioned previously. Im not after code or spreadsheets, I'm only asking to know what else is out there.

Thanks

Pinnaclesports will not limit you and they have an API. Hope that helps you out.

Lord Greystoke 23rd January 2014 09:27 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Pinnaclesports will not limit you and they have an API. Hope that helps you out.
only sports. no horses?

LG

Puntz 23rd January 2014 09:45 PM

Quote:
And as such I can't offer it beyond that which is already implemented in Axis, Im sure you understand.


yeah, it's your choice, but the math;

An Illustration:
hypothetical, not a theory in my opinion but highly probable principle.

Suppose we look at one race, and the win pool totals.

Suppose there are 10k in the win pool @ -10 mins to start of race.
by - 2 mins it has gone up to 20k
and we all know it goes up to whatever.

Let's say there are 100 potential systems out there that require a auto-bet implemented.
Not all 100 potential auto-bet systems strike a win on the same race

Let's say out of 100, 80 of those lose and their bets contributed on average
30k
That's $30,000.00 of money that could have been part of the win pool total.
The other 20 won.
And that's just one race.
( size of bet is not taken into consideration at this point of the illustration)

Let's say hypothetically all those 100 separate system where betting on that one race, it's probably an extra 50k - 60k in the win pool.

And that's just the win pool, there's a Trifecta pool, Quinella pool,
Pik 4 and whatever else Pool, ALL missing out.

blackdog1 23rd January 2014 10:28 PM

After reading your original post
I have run my results again highlighting the missed bets, potential winners and losers.

I knew it was a problem but now that I have it in black and white it's astonishing how big a difference it makes.

And as you said Murphy's law works, the missed winning bets far outweigh the losing ones.

Michal 24th January 2014 05:35 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Pinnaclesports will not limit you and they have an API. Hope that helps you out.
Thanks UB, greatly appreciated.

Rinconpaul 25th January 2014 06:54 AM

Yesterday was another massively inefficient day for placing bets. I was going OK and stopped at 0.74 points profit. If I was a machine, I would've made 2.06 points. Another massive 64% of potential profit left behind on the cutting room floor.

I thought back to what categories I could put that down to:

1/ Missed a few early races while emailing contacts
2/ Left to pick the missus up, missed a few more.
3/ Felt like unscrewing the top off a crownie or two, missed a few more.
4/ Couldn't be bothered with the night races, missed heaps.

So next time I read about forumites grumbling about the decay of a percent or two in this or that and woe is me...well this might feel like a slap in the face with a wet face washer, but you've gotta start thinking outside the square! What you're doing, is being duplicated by 98% of punters. Forget it!!

Lord Greystoke 25th January 2014 07:25 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rinconpaul

1/ Missed a few early races while emailing contacts - a bit feeble!
2/ Left to pick the missus up, missed a few more - you need a 'driver'(son - daughter?) or walk everywhere and hand over the keys to the missus
3/ Felt like unscrewing the top off a crownie or two, missed a few more - back pack with drip feed?
4/ Couldn't be bothered with the night races, missed heaps - set up an office - desk offshore. Visit occasionally with the winnings.

Get a grip on the wet washer son, you know it makes sense?

LG


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