Using some form of regressional analysis may be the way to determine the importance of various factors, but what a task without a substantial database. Surely this has already been done for the common factors and the results should be somewhere for us to find.

I just use the simplistic approach of finding the average strike rate of each of the top 5 ranks of each factor and compare the averages to decide what factors to use. With just 2 factors for the past 25 weeks I have managed a pot that fluctuates between 10 and 12%. Not fantastic but has allowed for an enjoyable time punting.

To combine the factors I use a basic probability formula to obtain a rating. The formula is:

Rating (prob of at least one factor getting a winner) =
1 - (1 - prob of factor 1)(1-prob of factor 2)(1-prob of factor 3).........etc
and multiply the result by 100.

Hope this provides something to think about for those without large a database.
Gunny72

Interesting gunny, can you provide an example?

i.e. say you have 4 factors you want to use, can you provide an example. You can just call them factors 1,2,3,4 and use fake numbers for all I care would just like to see a worked example if thats cool?

Appreciate the reply.

Cheers

Factor 1 25%=0.25
Factor 2 15%=0.15
Factor 3 12%=0.12
Factor 4 8%=0.08
etc

Rating=1-(1-0.25)(1-0.15)(1-0.12)(1-0.08) ... etc

=1-0.75*0.85*0.88*0.92 ... etc

=1-0.51612 for these four example factors

=0.48388 or 48% (to nearest whole number)

This means there is a 48% chance of at least one of the factors producing a winner.

I like to keep things simple. I only use two factors at present and my results agree with the theory. Of course getting a good price is another matter.

gunny72

It's good to see your grey cells are still working Gunny. As a an early member of Ausrace and a contributor to PPM magazine you have earned my respect and probably contributed to me being a full time gambler now. Thanks to BF a comfortable living is relatively easy to obtain. You wrote one of the earliest articles that I ever read on exchange betting and laying horses. It is the way to go.

Thanks for the kind words Speedy. I actually do this to keep the grey matter going-I will be 70 yo next year. I've also had a couple of good weeks since I last reported my results and my POT for the last 23 weeks is now 16%! No doubt the run of outs will come. I bet on each BR Sat races except 2yos. I am glad you are doing well at the punt-better than I am.

I read an American study that showed that "handicappers" are less likely to suffer from dementia or old timers disease. If only I could remember where I read it.

Speedy,you may be confusing me with Statsman.

Not if your name is Roman.

Does/Has anyone used the sectional time and average speed data supplied as part of the form by one of the main aus horse racing websites. Their web address starts with P and rhymes with hunters?

I hadn't taken much notice of it before but saw it on the weekend and looks like it has the potential to be useful? particularly for speed mapping and/or determining if a horse has the ability to maintain or increase speed even after settling forward in the race.

I understand many use sectional data and that its difficult to obtain and calculate yourself unless you pay for the data, however the figures shown on the 'hunters' website seems useful on the surface.

So i'm interested if anyone uses it as part of their process and/or does anyone scrape this info into excel via web queries?

Roman eh.

You write great articles so thank you.
Cheers