Shoto I would suggest there is something wrong with your Price Predictor set up. Why would favourites have less than a 20% strike rate?

Maybe you are missing some dividends...i.e. your software counts the bets but doesn't have dividends for the winners.

I will run some stats and see what shows up.

Following stats showed up for a limited period from 1/1/02 to 19/7/03 (need to update the database on this PC).

Field Size between 0 and 7
Weekday = Saturday
Area = Metropolitan
State = QLD, NSW, VIC, SA

include if TAB N Rank = 1


Total selections: 250
Total Wins: 109
Strike Rate: 43.6%
Total Place: 166
Place Strike rate: 66.4%
Profit on Turnover: -1.5%

Osulldj,

Your figures stack up to mine pretty much exactly.
What worries me are the number of different outcomes some people get from databases.

Bhagwan for example, gets a completely different result but that is possibly because of him including 8 runners not 7 or less.

Here are my stats:
(But I did include Perth as I have a limited history in my database.

Selections 143
Winners 66
Strike Rate 46.15%
Return $142.10
Loss $0.90
LOT 0.63%
Average Dividend $2.15

But here is some interesting added information.

Horses meeting all the above criteria, but paying less than $2.00 (odds on):

Selections 41
Winners 29
Strike Rate 70.73%
Return $47.10
Profit $6.10
POT 14.88% ****
Average Dividend $1.62

(Selections paying greater than even money were about 5% LOT).

Get DiviPlus on these badboys and your in the money! :wink:.......maybe!

Further fuel to the debate that you can't back favourites and especially odds on favourites and still win - you can, providing you're selective.


[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2003-08-29 18:19 ]

Strange. Obviously I've got a problem. I checked and re-checked the set-up - and ran the test again - this is what my results give me. I can't say for sure that have every single Saturday meeting, but at worst it would be most of them. As far as I know Price will list selections without results seperately and not include them in the results. Any other price predictor users have this weirdness?

Chrome, Do you know if the same result (or close) would be achieved using pre-post prices, i.e. 1/1 or less or odds on??

Ran it through 300 races based on S/P favs for 40% S/R -15% LOT.

Frustrating stuff when you consider the strike rate.

My figures also match Chrome Prince's & Ossulldj's - I don't know what you other guys are doing!!!

Field Size = 3 to 7
Saturday Only
Metro Only in Syd, Mel, Bris, Adel & Perth
TABCORP Favourite (if equal favourite then lower TAB number)
Approx 18 months of data:

305 Selections
136 Winners (45% SR)
-2.10 LOSS (0.6% LOT)

Looking by price range:
1.00-1.90: 91 seln, 59 win, 6.70 profit (7% POT)
2.00-2.90: 169 seln, 66 win, -1.10 loss (0.6% LOT)
3.00+: 45 seln, 11 win, -7.70 loss (17% LOT)

Once again the odds-on runners are the best bet!

Forgot to mention - it is even better if you look at races with 6 or less runners:

Odds On: 49 selns, 32 wins (65% SR), 5.30 profit (10.8% POT)
2.00-2.90: 79 selns, 31 wins (39% SR), 0.20 loss (0.2% LOT)
3.00+ : 12 Selns, 2 wins, 5.80 Loss (48% LOT)

Hi to the Sages,

So does all that [mind blowing] lot mean I throw my money at these guys for there tips or what?

Cheers.

Crash, did you intend this response for this thread?
If so, these are not paid selections, they're just doing a study following the performance of favourites in small fields.