OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums - Culling fields which stat do you use???

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- - Culling fields which stat do you use??? (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=3389)

good day umrum.
what i am suggesting is that good horses that run in good races generally keep performing. in helenus case it is some time now (i think the rosehill guineas) since it placed in top company. I will be waiting for it to place again at least in group class before i would back it.
otherwise i am implying the horse could be enigmatic and hard to catch otherwise.
hope this explains the point i am making.

I think you will be waiting a long time Topsy. The nag has not come up again this year. It happens. Move on I reckon.

Cheers

Quote:

On 2003-09-30 17:02, topsy99 wrote:
good day umrum.
what i am suggesting is that good horses that run in good races generally keep performing. in helenus case it is some time now (i think the rosehill guineas) since it placed in top company. I will be waiting for it to place again at least in group class before i would back it.
otherwise i am implying the horse could be enigmatic and hard to catch otherwise.
hope this explains the point i am making.

oh right. just wondering what you meant when u said a forum member criticised kusi and helenus. both are finished. helenus has a better future in front of him as a pro rooter

[ This Message was edited by: umrum on 2003-10-07 13:56 ]

Quote:

On 2003-09-30 17:02, crash wrote: Thinking about last Saterday. 80% of all races in all states were won by the first four averaged prize money and from the top four Zip lines from the Sportsman.

Do you mean that 80% of winners were in the first four in EITHER the ave prizemoney or Zip ratings, OR were they in the first four in BOTH???

Gidday Crash,

Does that stat stand up each week?

Twodogs

Quote:

On 2003-09-30 17:02, crash wrote:

Thinking about last Saterday. 80% of all races in all states were won by the first four averaged prize money and from the top four Zip lines from the Sportsman.

Worth keeping in mind if you want to cull hard and spend the min. time on form. Look for a top jock and/or trainer and bobs your uncle for a not at all scary selection method that will bag enough winners to keep a fellows dignity intact.

Cheers.

Cheers.

Hello Stebbo,

I somewhat agree with you re culling but when time is your enemy it is great to be able to fine down the chances without losing too many winners.

Twodogs

Quote:

On 2003-09-30 10:34, stebbo wrote:
Hi Twodogs,

personally I think that culling the field can be dangerous, and you're better off culling the races... ie investigate ALL runners in a smaller number of races.

I'm very new to form analysis, but this is my tactic at the moment... By analysing the entire field, you can sometimes spot something that you'd miss if you just concentrate on "the contenders".

If you are going to cull the field, then my personal favorite at the moment is looking at the jockey. With my own "form selections", I don't back anything that's being ridden by a jockey with a poor strike rate.

A couple of other stats that I have come across 80% of winners are in the top 4 of the market 5 minutes before the start and 74% of winners are priced <=$13 in the prepost market.

Cheers
Twodogs

Sportsnut,

The first four lines from both. However it is worth mentioning that as far as Zip goes the first four lines might include more than four runners as often there is 2 on the second line and 3 or 4 on the third line. Not often but worth mentioning.

Moe yesterday: 3 wins from the top rater, 2 wins from 2nd. 3 from 3rd. 1 fourth and a 5th that dead heated with a top rater [9 races].
There is a system there somewhere [useing both Zip and average prize money].
Add decent handicapping and it aint a bad way to go. I still look at all runners though in case I miss something. So I wouldn't call it a system.

Cheers.

Know what you are thinking there Two Dogs [and perhaps Sportsnut too], but sorry to say no it dosn't stand up all the time but it does most of the time. Enough to make a system out of it ? I have been working on it for some time. The top 4 Zip lines are the problem. They may include up to eight runners in larger fields. I have just been using them for hadicapping [with some success]. Been looking for another criteria to add to the mix. Any ideas ?

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-10-01 10:38 ]

Crash,

I suppose I am at the same stage, looking for that filter that will move me forward. Have you looked at the Wizard Wrat >=81? its strike rate is >70%

Twodogs

Crash,

I wonder if instead of the Zipform ratings, you could use the ratings displayed on the Unitab website??? I think they seem to do fairly well.