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-   -   Blazing saddles 1,2,3 (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=4481)

ginger 30th March 2004 09:41 PM

hi megamoos
care to shed some light on your system
cya

ginger 1st April 2004 11:40 AM

sorry to bring this up to the top but i would like megamoos to reply to some of these posts
cya

kenchar 1st April 2004 05:12 PM

It might be winter and the big moose has gone to hibernate.

Paddy 1st April 2004 09:29 PM

Hey megamoos, where's my steak knives :smile:

4th April 2004 09:46 AM

Sorry guys I've been flat out. I'm still collating my results and I'll try and provide my findings tonight or tomorrow.
Hi Baghwan. Its no use just looking at one race meeting for this system. Of course you are going to encounter a losing run of outs. A run of eight I believe is nothing to worry about. So far I think my longest sequence is 24. However, I'm only proposing a $3000 bank for this system. So there is a reasonable amount to fall back on. This system can of course be applied to Sydney.
If you want to look at single race meetings
such as yesterday :
Sandown Race 1 no 3 at $4.50 approx
3 no 2 at $4.60
4 no 3 at $5.50
5 no 1 at $8
7 no 2 at $10
8 no 1 at $21
Additionally at Rosehill no 1 won 4 times and no 2 once.

So far I have examined 171 races
Number 1 starts 158 - winners 29 - percentage S/R 18.3%
Number 2 starts 150 - winners 22 - percentage S/R 14.7%
Number 3 starts 157 - winners 29 - percentage S/R 18.5 %

Cheers megamoos
I'm sorry I'm not being ignorant of your interest, its just very time consuming
Paddy I'm not sure where your steak knives are mate, but I'm not too cut up about it.

4th April 2004 09:50 AM

Hi again. Just a note to Chrome Prince. I am targeting each number to win $50, so each three are basically independent of each other. I'm not sure about this LOT business. I don't understand that there is a loss, when I am aiming to win $50 profit on each winner. I suppose once a desired bank limit has been reached each number can be played out until it wins, leaving no losses, just a nice juicy bank buildup hopefully.

good 4th 4th April 2004 11:37 AM

Hi Meg
I have been there with what your trying to do and if your longest runout is 24, times that by three = 72 this will give you a better idea of the realistic longest run outs. Oh i here you say this will never happen.... well one day, week it will and it will bury you so bad.
If your picking numbers to win why 1,2,3 why not 5,6,7 etc.... if your lucky you might get a $1.20 winner after all those run outs and i can tell you you will need a VERY large bank, $30000 might be a good starting bank for one number.
Research it over years of data but remember that will be past results which has no bearing on what will happen on the day,just as your planning on becomming rich from this game it will come out an get you where it hurts.
Good luck hope it works
GD4TH

EVERY THING WORKS BUT NOTHING DOES

Chrome Prince 4th April 2004 10:12 PM

Quote:
On 2004-04-04 10:50, megamoos wrote:
Hi again. Just a note to Chrome Prince. I am targeting each number to win $50, so each three are basically independent of each other. I'm not sure about this LOT business. I don't understand that there is a loss, when I am aiming to win $50 profit on each winner. I suppose once a desired bank limit has been reached each number can be played out until it wins, leaving no losses, just a nice juicy bank buildup hopefully.


Hi megamoos,

I'm not putting down your idea at all, the LOT means that betting $1 on every selection, applying filters etc I couldn't get it into profit using level stakes.

That doesn't mean it can't be done, only I had a hard time doing it.

If you're applying a staking plan, then proceed with caution unless you can find a way to get a level stake profit first.

Best of luck with it.

4th April 2004 10:31 PM

Gday good 4th. Do you really know that this is so. Numbers 5,6,7 have a much lower winning strike rate. Numbers 1,2,3 have a combined winning strike rate of over 40%.So far I've turned up this with 1000 races randomly selected from newspaper results. I think Chrome Prince provided similar results of over 40% strike rate. The point is if say 1 is winning at say 16-18%, one race in 6 and say 2 and 3 from the stats gathered so far say 12 - 13% (one in 8 races), then the $50 return is regular. So far from the time I have tested the system 171 races, 1,2 or 3 were scratched a total of 48 times
Number 1 has won 29 races
2 " 22 "
3 " 29 "
4 " 15 "
5 " 12 "
6 " 18 "
From my stats I've got so far 4,5,6 win a decent amount of time, about 9 or 10%, 1 in 10 or 11 races, which to me doesn't seem sensible to me.Numbers 1,2,3 still pay good dividends. Can anybody get any stats tables on saddlecloth winners for say the last 10 years in metro vic. I predict that you'll find that Numbers 1,2,3 would have continually maintained this sort of strike rate and be the most rgularly winning number.
I remember seeing the tables in the herald sun form and they were always winning more.Anyway I'll take a break and put my results so far to you.

Cheers megamoos

4th April 2004 11:04 PM

Hi again, No worries Chromey, I know what you're saying, but according to things so far I've started with a hypothetical $3000 and after 3 weeks my $50 banked lots total $4000 spot on. So I've got an effective bank of $7000.
First of all, here are some of the notable runs of winners that have come up
1-1-333-231-2121--1-1
22-2222--33-31--13-3
131--23-2
3331-3
31-2311--123
3-322-11-21
131311-1
Which I suppose actually means 62 winners in 87 races, but leaving 18 winners in the remaining 84 races. This probably explains a couple of long runs I've had, but so far the bank has easily supported it. here's a summary of the unfavourable runs so far

No Run of outs Amt chasing BankDownwith123
1 10 $306 $358
2 10 $258 $303
1 11 $413 $489
2 14 $215 $302
3 13 $297 $411
2 19 $963 $1365
3 23 $1915 $2023
1 16 $220 $279
2 24 $1714 $1793

So far the three instances that have occurred where the total owing to the bank reached 1365,2023 and 1793, the profit was 2800,3200,3750 respectively. And the inevitability of these numbers inparticular 2 and 3 coming up 1 in 8 or 9, suggests that it would be extremely unlikely that a run of outs would continue much higher than 24,thats 3 race meetings. Anyway thats the state of it so far. I would appreciate any input on this and especially any statistics on winning saddlecloth numbers.Dig out those old heralds, especially those around July,August,the end of the season.

Cheers megamoos

and a special thanks to Blazing saddles,Surround,Hyperno,Octagonal,Pharaoh and Livistona Lane, just to mention a few


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