OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/index.php)

- Horse Race Betting Systems (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/forumdisplay.php?f=10)

- - Ratings-The Base Run (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=4669)

Thanks woof43,

It's greenroom42@hotmail.com

mjb.

Quote:

In every study, a horses adjacent performance look exactly like what you would expect from random performance around their average talent level, given their standard deviation. Thus my conclusion, at least with current evidence, that form doesn't exist as a predictive factor.

If this is true then surely a horse with a poor last start but an "average talent level" indicating a strong chance in a particular race would usually be good value. Or is there also no correlation between recent form and market price? Now that I would find hard to believe.

[ This Message was edited by: OnTheNose on 2004-05-10 01:10 ]

[ This Message was edited by: OnTheNose on 2004-05-10 12:47 ]

Zorro,

It seems to boil down to working out your own 'base run'for a horse, based on the average from a few past runs you consider genuine [not fitness runs or way out of class or distance etc].

Cheers.

Quote:

On 2004-05-09 14:40, woof43 wrote:
If you post your email address i will send a simple 1000 or so simulator to gain an understanding.
Cheers

Hi woof, would appreciate it if you could also forward to -

mango_madness@bigpond.com

Thanks