Shaun your talking about backing the same horse everytime it races you never mentioned that you wouldnt bet if that horse ran out of form or drew a bad barrier. Of course horseracing and roulette are vastly different but the principle behind my arguement was the same. You will probably be successful in making a profit for a period of time but when it comes to a stage where you pick a horse that has a run of losing for say 15 starts all the profits you made will be chewed up just like what happens if you consistently back a color in roulette to gain a set profit, eventually you will hit a run of the other color that will send you broke. However its your money not mine i'm just having my two cents worth.

Cheers Ed

i guess what shaun is doing is counter to what most punters would try to do.
a senior mathematician did the numbers on black and red and his conclusion was that by incrementally betting black and red you will lose the amount that the game dictates what you should lose.

in the case with horses it is going against conventional wisdom as many variables come into play such as changes in class,form, barriers, jockeys, setting for races, tracks

also it has never been proven conclusively that punters can pick winners with any degree of certainty at any time letter alone playing russian roulette with a stable of horses.

not for me i'm afraid. even if our esteemed punter does come out in front is it a fluke or luck or good management.
i would leave out the last.

i know it is none of my business but it worries me when punters attempt to do things that put so much hard earned at risk without any research, statistics, knowledge, trust, etc.
best of luck

[ This Message was edited by: kenchar on 2004-05-25 17:54 ]

Tell me this has there ever been a time that you backed a horse at each of it's start for what ever reason

Yes, but you are missing our point entirely. Take our Egyptian Raine for example, she is a super sprinting mare who has had seven starts this prep for no wins using her Unitab starting price for all these races to win a set profit of $100 you would have to invest. Rounding return to the nearest $1.00 for bet unit. Note these are approximations as my mathematics do not extend to this level

Race return bet Total loss
Lightning $4.00 $35 $35
Newmarket $7.00 $25 $60
Aust Stakes $6.00 $30 $90
T.J Smith $7.00 $30 $120
All Aged $11.00 $25 $145
Byrn Hart $3.00 $125 $280
Doom 10000 $5.00 $95 $375

These figures do not look to bad however
It would only take a few more loses at short odds to send this figure skyrocketing. And again reinforcing the point that Our Egyptian Raine may never win another race it is a risk i'm not willing to take.

Cheers Ed

Nothing wrong with your idea Shaun.

The problem is selecting the runners to follow [where I also had problems].

Perhaps looking at promising 2yr. olds might be a better course to follow.

What you have selected are horses with good form behind them, not in front of them.

Biaggio has to come down in class and to 1100m. and has been up since Jan.

Bradshaw has won only 1 from 14 starts and that was 1 win from 9 starts last year.

The rest of your runners seem to going backward form wise too.

Can't see sense in following them but your idea is sound enough.

Sort out some [young] runners on the up and you should do OK.

Cheers.