Mr J,

I'm not sure if this is 100% accurate, but I think it's pretty good as a guide. Take the margins in Union/League and multiply them by about 2 1/2. In other words, I think a 12 pt margin in NRL is sort of equivalent to a 30 pt margin in AFL. Someone else might have a different opinion though.

I decided to let it stand, otherwise I wouldn't have a good chance at accurately predicting large spreads.

Over a few rounds of testing my system has gone 17-6 (this is the exact same system I've just tested for NRL and I used for Super 12s). Obviously not a statistically significant number, but the systems overall record of 108-35 is!!!

I'd really like to know exactly what facts and figures you use in your systems. Sounds very impressive.

[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-06-03 06:47 ]

I think you'd be amazed at how simple it is. Just 5 factors inc. home advantage, road performance, travel etc.

The system is the same for NRL, AFL and Super 12s. I just keep it simple, just factoring in the most influencial factors.

Originally I was going to use a highly detailed version of my Super 12 system but I found that too many factors drowned out the influence of the more important factors. Basically, the simple version worked better.

I'm going to try it at Super League, I'll just need the lines for previous games this season. I'm not going to test the NRL any further (38-13), I'm convinced it is profitable there. I'll test it more on the AFL (17-6) until I get a statistically significant result.

Don't have any idea of what my advantage is though. I'd guess that it as much as 15-20% for Super 12s, 10%+ for NRL and AFL.

St.Kilda have as much chance of winning by over 40 points as they do by under.
They will certainly win.
And it won't be a close game.
My advice.No go @ 1 to 39.5.
Geelong are specials and Fremantle?,where's Docker Dessie when you need him?
Melbourne? not for me against Freo.

Cheers Mo.


_________________
You can only win if the odds are in your favour!

[ This Message was edited by: moeee on 2004-06-03 12:16 ]

Contemplating taking Richmond (+10.5) & Melbourne (+19.5)
What do ya think fellas?

paddy
Richmond probably need closer to about 4 goals +24.5
and melbourne on the road second week running
couldn't say,freo are pretty good at home but then theyve been away too
collingwood -20.5 is good as is lions -28.5

second half looks ok

Haven't tested my system much on AFL (it's 23-9 so far) but I'll have a good anyway.

West Coast +20.5
Hawthorn +45.5
Carlton +41.5
Port +26.5
Bulldogs +20.5
Fremantle -19.5
Swans +28.5.

I acutally have the Bulldogs and Sydney winning outright.

My system says the Kangaroos-Richmond line is spot on. Also says the fremantle & carlton are close but there's still value.

Let's see how it does...

Gday all...Have been spending time watching the goings on in the NRL and following my beloved Lakers team make the NBA finals (followed them since the days of- Magic Johnson and Kareem Abdul Jabbar)!

Moee, reckon it will be a close one on Sunday (definitely under 35 pts)...showers expected this weekend and both teams play it right to the end...as already pointed out the Demons dont travel too badly out this way...but the thing that has impressed me with the Dockers has been the solidness at the back and if they can keep the Demons (Neitz) at bay and Longmuir and co fire then it will be a fast finishing Dockers win...but they will need to get out of the blocks a hell of a lot better than they did against the Bombers last week!!!