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-   -   AFL Round 12 Predictions (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=5038)

8th June 2004 07:00 PM

I am only planning to bet $5 on the bet, if I win there's a great profit, if I lose it's no big deal.

I'm starting to have doubts about Brisbane though, if they have equal points with Essendon and the match is being played in Melbourne why do we all predict them to win?

rabbitz 8th June 2004 08:54 PM

Am a bit wary of points multiples after the crows let me down last week
Have taken Lions at 20-39 @ $4.00
Early ,considering essendon have players at tribunal,if they lose a few through suspension notably solomon and johnson and rioli,could be more.remember the lions on ,the got the power and also I think their favourite song the lion sleeps tonight has been played too much,they havent really got out of second gear for a while.I think they will get no.4 this year.

8th June 2004 09:26 PM

how much are you betting on the brisbane lions to win by 20-39 points?

rabbitz 9th June 2004 10:02 AM

Primo two questions
1.Why do you ask
2.What do you think the winner or magin might be

moeee 9th June 2004 10:24 AM

Hey Primo.
Was that you who mentioned something about a huge bet on Collingwood last week.
If it was,don't concern yourself with the amount others invest.
For some people,$5 is equivalent to anothers $500.
I know people who go to the tote and invest $200 on a horse,after just 2 or so minutes of thought.
If it is calming to you to know that somebody lost more than you did on the event,then you need to re-assess your punting attitude.
Tell you what.If I saw $5 in the gutter,I'd have no qualms about stopping to pick it up and putting it in my pocket.
When you start investing more than you can afford,you begin the roller-coaster ride to disappointment and many sessions of misery.

Six selections in a Multi is pushing it a bit.I suggest you knock it down to four.
Write down the payout for each of the possible combinations of four,and see which of these turn you on the most.

Cheers Mo.


sportznut 9th June 2004 02:04 PM

Depending on any big team changes, here are my current ratings:
Carlton 96 Hawthorn 88
W.Bulldogs 78 St Kilda 134
Essendon 110 Brisbane 98
West Coast 101 Adelaide 87
Port Adel 110 Sydney 90
Geelong 111 Kangaroos 89
Richmond 89 Fremantle 89
Melbourne 117 Collingwood 97

Well, there you go Moeee. I've put my neck on the chopping block there. Let's see how they go. Before you ask, no I won't be betting on a draw in the Richmond/Fremantle game! That's just the way my ratings came out. Anyway, using your pricing formula, what odds do those ratings represent?

goldmember 9th June 2004 02:32 PM

ST KILDA by 50
BRISBANE by 18
W/COAST by 20
SWANS by 12
KANGAROOS by 4
FREEMANTLE by 26
MELBOURNE by 14

goldmember 9th June 2004 02:34 PM

CARLTON by 22
ST KILDA by 50
BRISBANE by 18
W/COAST by 20
SWANS by 12
KANGAROOS by 4
FREEMANTLE by 26
MELBOURNE by 14

moeee 9th June 2004 03:13 PM

Carlton by 6 $1.75 Hawthorn $2.30
St.Kilda by 60 $1.05 Bulldogs $16
West Coast by 2 $1.90 Adelaide $2.10
Brisbane by 3 $1.85 Essendon $2.15
Port Power by 9 $1.65 Sydney $2.50
Geelong by 11 $1.60 Kangas $2.65
Fremantle by 24 $1.33 Richmond $4
Melbourne by 21 $1.40 Magpies $3.60


moeee 9th June 2004 03:29 PM

On 2004-06-09 14:04, sportznut wrote:
Depending on any big team changes, here are my current ratings:
Carlton 96 Hawthorn 88 $1.70 $2.45
W.Bulldogs 78 St Kilda 134 $14 $1.07
Essendon 110 Brisbane 98 $1.55 $2.75
West Coast 101 Adelaide 87 $1.50 $2.90
Port Adel 110 Sydney 90 $1.40 $3.50
Geelong 111 Kangaroos 89 $1.35 $3.75
Richmond 89 Fremantle 89 $2 $2
Melbourne 117 Collingwood 97 $1.40 $3.50

Well, there you go Moeee. I've put my neck on the chopping block there. Let's see how they go. Before you ask, no I won't be betting on a draw in the Richmond/Fremantle game! That's just the way my ratings came out. Anyway, using your pricing formula, what odds do those ratings represent?

Don't see no chopping block at all,Sportznut.
Free advice I'm seeing.Take it or leave it.
The odds for your selected draw would be $40.
You'd be pressed to get 50's anyway.No value in chasing draws.Too much time between collects.

Cheers Mo.

Sorry.Just edited the Geelong game price.
And then the Saints game.(Thanks GM)
_________________
You can only win if the odds are in your favour!

[ This Message was edited by: moeee on 2004-06-09 15:34 ]

[ This Message was edited by: moeee on 2004-06-09 15:37 ]


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