By my reckoning, that means an average price of around $1.07. Easier ways to win $3.22 than hoping 17 red hot favourites all manage to win.

Primo I doubt you'd win all of them. Most of those are likely -EV and I'm sorry but you can't beat mathematics.

Risking 100% of your BR on any bet that isn't a sure thing (and by sure thing I mean rigged) is dramatically overbetting.

To justify a bet of just 50% of your BR with a 50% ADVANTAGE, your bet needs to hit 82.29%!!!!

Even if you had a 99% advantage, and the bet would hit 99%, a stake of 100% of your BR is still not justified.

I'm glad you don't have 2 mil, you would be left with $0.00 very quickly.

I think there might be some value on friday night with the Roos

With the start, outright or both?

A bit of both although i havent seen the start yet but i think they are some sort of chance to win outright

This would be another of those mental games.
Kangaroos can say goodnight Irene if this one loses.
Essendon would probably find a top-4 finish easier if they win this one.
How bad do you want to win.
More at stake for the Roos so beware you Bomber fans.

I think that essendon will probably get home ,but there are easier ways to make money this weekend,and also there are harder.
St Kilda v Port adelaide will not carry any of my money.Both teams are up and down and god knows what the weather will be in tasmania,so that ones out.
Secondly taking the lions with a big start like 70 or 80 is a risk due to the decelerating factor,roll your own round 6-7 goals.collingwood got beat by the swans but hawthorn aint the swans,so there is your second leg.And whats with melbourne and Adelaide,do the bookies know something we dont,the start is only 7.5.I thought a least four goals comfortably.So your treble could be something like lions -37.5,Pies -23.5,Melbourne -23.5.Should be around $4.50 comfortably.
Cheers

Vibe for the Crows game.Back both teams to win by over 30 points.Just can't smell a close one here.Crows will be hot or not.

See what I mean about facts and figures.Surely if a bloke tips a bit of a blowout he'd know which team will do it.
No.This is the vibe at work.

Cheers - Mo.

"And then I'd bet all of that on Henman ($1.75) to beat Phillipousis - even though the match is played tonight, let's assume it is not." - Primo

And Henman won. :smile:

Still overbetting. Primo, there are no sure things, everything in gambling is based around maths. Simply winning isn't enough, you bet -EV which means every $ you place the more you will lose.