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-   -   Mo's tips for AFL round 16 (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=5402)

moeee 15th July 2004 01:48 PM

Looking at your selections Mr J,you'll be stepping on a few peoples toes getting your bets on.
You seem to have come up with some huge overs there.
And if your system is making 10% or so on turnover,I'm sure you could increase that by adding one more rule.
By the way,Onthepunt AFL tips are making a profit of 8% on turnover this year.

Cheers - Mo.

Mr J 15th July 2004 02:35 PM

Moe, I actually like going against the general opinion. Means prices will move in my favour.

BTW, my 10%POT is only using sportstab lines, at an average price of 1.90.

If I just used pinnacle (avg price of 1.95) my POT would be 12.2%.

OTP also only records bets at the very best lines the market has to offer, where as my record is against widely available lines. I hope you recognize the difference.

goldmember 15th July 2004 05:19 PM

W/COAST by 12
KANGAROOS by 20
ST KILDA by 20
BR LIONS by 39
ADELAIDE by 40
SWANS by 17
PT ADEL by 39
MELB by 21

rabbitz 15th July 2004 05:48 PM

is subiaco the graveyard for melbourne teams or what.essendon have drifted way out in betting.it makes you not want to touch that game,specially in the first leg of any multi.I think moee"s the only one who'd take the 2.60 on offer
cheers

goldmember 15th July 2004 06:19 PM

I am more confident of the swans winning than essendon.

goldmember 15th July 2004 07:23 PM

Essendon - no Hird , no win !!!!

moeee 16th July 2004 09:16 AM

Quote:
On 2004-07-15 15:35, Mr J wrote:

BTW, my 10%POT is only using sportstab lines, at an average price of 1.90.



At the local TAB in Victoria is a bookmaking firm called Sportstab.Their take out margin is a minimum of 8%.
If you are betting with them then you are not serious in your professionalism.
Not knocking the group,but you Mr J.
Unless you are just using their figures as a basis for coming up with a system.

moeee 16th July 2004 09:31 AM

2 things.

Rabbitz.The other only way you can make money gambling,is by having a different opinion than someone else.
For example,look at Mr J's AFL tips over the season.Many appear just plain wrong.But his system bank is climbing by 10%.
If everybody used the same data in the same way,we'd come up with the same result.
I'm using the intangible thing called the vibe.Go Bombers.

Goldmember.Give me one reason why the Swans can not only beat Geelong but win fairly comfortably it seems.
Here is 3 reasons you seem to have erred.
Home game for the Cats.Cats above Sydney on the ladder.Top 4 position on the line.

Mr J 16th July 2004 12:29 PM

"Unless you are just using their figures as a basis for coming up with a system."

They were the only place I was able to get previous lines.


There's no way in hell I'd bet with them. I only bet online, mainly at offshore bookies.

Most of my betting (for NRL/AFL) is at pinnacle, canbet, sia, cris and olympic.

Mr J 16th July 2004 12:38 PM

"look at Mr J's AFL tips over the season.Many appear just plain wrong."

I love that!! That'd be a result of me just going by numbers, and not factoring in injuries, h2h etc.

Obviously there are different approaches one can use to beat sports. Each has advantages and disadvantages.


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