At the moment I am looking at Danaurum E/W think he will handle the jump up in distance without a problem and unless you want to listen to every word that comes out of Rogersons mouth this is the most wide open derby I have seen anything could win it.

Current EW fixed odds:

SAVABEEL $2.50
PLASTERED $3.50
CEDAR MANOR $8.00
LIONS GATE $8.00
MR MARTINI $8.00
COUNT RICARDO $12.00
CHUT $16.00
KING DURHAM $21.00
SOI COWBOY $26.00
ZANKEL $26.00
ACCUMULATE $35.00
BARELY A MOMENT $35.00
HEAVENLY PUN $61.00
OCTRIVIA $101.00
DANAURUM $151.00
PUBLIC OPINION $151.00
BREAK THE BARRIER $201.00
BULLMIX $201.00
CALORIFIC $201.00
LIGHT SHINE $201.00
TACKMAN $201.00

Latest market movement:

Horse Now Was
SAVABEEL $2.50 $5.00
PLASTERED $3.50 $5.50
CEDAR MANOR $8.00 $8.00
LIONS GATE $8.00 $5.50
MR MARTINI $8.00 $21.00
COUNT RICARDO $12.00 $10.00
CHUT $16.00 $6.50
KING DURHAM $21.00 $21.00
SOI COWBOY $26.00 $17.00
ZANKEL $26.00 $13.00
ACCUMULATE $35.00 $35.00
BARELY A MOMENT $35.00 $10.00
HEAVENLY PUN $61.00 $51.00
OCTRIVIA $101.00 $81.00
DANAURUM $151.00 $61.00
PUBLIC OPINION $151.00 $151.00
BREAK THE BARRIER $201.00 $71.00
BULLMIX $201.00 $151.00
CALORIFIC $201.00 $81.00
LIGHT SHINE $201.00 $201.00
TACKMAN $201.00 $151.00

Current EW fixed odds:


SAVABEEL $2.50
PLASTERED $3.50
CEDAR MANOR $7.00
LIONS GATE $8.00
MR MARTINI $8.00
COUNT RICARDO $11.00
CHUT $16.00
KING DURHAM $21.00
SOI COWBOY $26.00
ACCUMULATE $41.00
BARELY A MOMENT $41.00
HEAVENLY PUN $41.00
OCTRIVIA $101.00
DANAURUM $151.00
PUBLIC OPINION $151.00
BREAK THE BARRIER $201.00
BULLMIX $201.00
CALORIFIC $201.00
LIGHT SHINE $201.00
TACKMAN $201.00

Latest market movement:

Horse Now Was
SAVABEEL $2.50 $2.50
PLASTERED $3.50 $3.50
CEDAR MANOR $7.00 $8.00
LIONS GATE $8.00 $8.00
MR MARTINI $8.00 $8.00
COUNT RICARDO $11.00 $12.00
CHUT $16.00 $16.00
KING DURHAM $21.00 $21.00
SOI COWBOY $26.00 $26.00
ACCUMULATE $41.00 $35.00
BARELY A MOMENT $41.00 $35.00
HEAVENLY PUN $41.00 $61.00
OCTRIVIA $101.00 $101.00
DANAURUM $151.00 $151.00
PUBLIC OPINION $151.00 $151.00
BREAK THE BARRIER $201.00 $201.00
BULLMIX $201.00 $201.00
CALORIFIC $201.00 $201.00
LIGHT SHINE $201.00 $201.00
TACKMAN $201.00 $201.00
ZANKEL Not listed $26.00

plastered looks the goods

IMO Savabeel does NOT have this race at his mercy.If you care to listen to the G.Rogerson hype,this horse will win this race in a canter,and also the Melbourne Cup as well!What a load of crap!Don't fall for it!A 3YO has not won the MC since Skipton in 1941!And is it worth $20 milion?Not in my books.Must be a lot of rich dudes with more money than sense out there.Sure,it won the Spring Champion and the Cox Plate,but what had it done before that?Won 2 low class races.It is no doubt a very talented racehorse,but to step up from the 2040 of the Cox at WFA,which gave it a huge advantage over the older horses,to 2500 of the Derby against it's own age at level weights removes that advantage and IMO brings it back to the field and makes it extremely vulnerable.IMO the stablemate is the one to beat,Cedar Manor,and is better value.One D.Oliver won on it the other day and on dismounting declared"this horse will win the Derby."I just hope he rides it!!It is the same scenario as Elvstroem coming back in distance from a hcp to WFA,and as I declared before the Cox,he would not run a place.I'm not saying Savabeel can't win,or won't run a place,I just don't think it will win.A place maybe.

No. Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight

1 SAVABEEL Graeme Rogerson C Munce 5 55.5
2 PLASTERED Lindsey Smith P J Harvey 6 55.5
3 CEDAR MANOR (NZ) Graeme Rogerson D Oliver 7 55.5
4 MR MARTINI Leon Corstens S Baster 10 55.5
5 COUNT RICARDO Stephen Theodore Matthew Allen 2 55.5
6 LIONS GATE Tony McEvoy D Nikolic 4 55.5
7 HEAVENLY PUN Heath Conners G Childs 9 55.5
8 KING DURHAM Mick Price C Brown 8 55.5
9 BULLMIX David Noonan D Beasley 3 55.5
10 SOI COWBOY Mick Price R McLeod 1 55.5
11 ACCUMULATE (NZ) Bart Cummings D Beadman 11 55.5

Current EW fixed odds:

SAVABEEL $2.60
PLASTERED $3.40
CEDAR MANOR $4.80
MR MARTINI $10.00
COUNT RICARDO $12.00
LIONS GATE $12.00
HEAVENLY PUN $31.00
KING DURHAM $31.00
SOI COWBOY $41.00
ACCUMULATE $81.00
BULLMIX $201.00

#3 CEDAR MANOR
#1 SAVABEEL
#2 PLASTERED
#5 COUNT RICARDO