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-   -   First 3 in the Tipters Poll (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=6691)

Sportz 4th January 2005 02:59 PM

I think he means a 22% strike rate for each individual horse, so I guess that's 66% strike rate per race (give or take a bit for scratchings).

La Mer 4th January 2005 04:28 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sportz
I think he means a 22% strike rate for each individual horse, so I guess that's 66% strike rate per race (give or take a bit for scratchings).


I doubt that there would be a 66% strike-rate - a strike-rate of that nature defies the maths and my experiecne of the tipsters poll would be that the top-selection would win more than the second, which in turn would win more than the third etc. My estimation would be that the strike-rate would be closer to 50% for the top-three.

Similar with Shaun's comments - with a 23% strike-rate the claim of 64% in the top-three does not hold-up unless there are a very small number of selections - simply in deference to the maths of it all.

Shaun 4th January 2005 04:38 PM

WELL IN MY CASE IT IS ABOUT 20-25 RACES A WEEK IS WHAT I COVER

Sportz 4th January 2005 04:39 PM

The 22% Benny was referring to was an average of ALL selections, so undoubtedly the top selections' strike rate would be higher than that, probably around 27 or 28%. I don't think it's unreasonable to expect a 60%+ strike rate for the top 3 picks, especially over a fairly short period of time.

Sportz 4th January 2005 07:22 PM

Hmmm, just been looking back over some recent results and I have to admit that the 60%+ IS probably unrealistic. You're right, I reckon 50% is about all you could expect long term. Brisbane and Sydney both had a couple of good weeks but levelled off while Melbourne seemed to be difficult just about every week. Think Benny might have just been looking at 1 or 2 good weeks.

Bhagwan 7th January 2005 08:53 AM

If one is looking at tipsters poll say the Australian.
All paper polls have the same SR as one another .

1st sel 30% =30%
2nd sel 15% =45%
3rd sel 10% =55%

This is based on 2 years results of all newspapers in Australia ,Individual Tipsters in those papers , Radio Tipsters , Jockey tips, Spotsman newspaper.ext.

I feel the best way to use these is to treat it like a 2 horse race & seperate the Top 2 selections (45%SR) , once you have worked out your selection , only bet it if it`s paying $2.80+ at jump time.


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