Well, I listen to Radiotab and they always announce the winner after the last race. And I'm sure you should be able to get your winnings then too. I usually bet on the computer and when I've backed the winner, the money goes into my account not long after the last race.

Think you're getting yourself confused Mo. If not, you're certainly doing a good job on the rest of us!

The difficulty in assesing this form of bet could turn out to be a good thing. The people working at the tab are probably struggling just as much to line up the form. Hence there should be opportunities for false odds, this as you all know is the fundamental way of profiting off the punt.

Just saw this thread for the first time

OK I am going to think out loud on this one, ie on this page.

To use Mooee's last example, jockeys are called A,B,C, they ride in the two races on the $2.0, $2.50 and $10 chances each, in each race, adding to 100% in each race. (We have a friendly bookie)

OK.

There is 36 possible finishes.... I think, ie 6 possible ways in the first leg, six in the second. That's easy enough. So next we calculate the probability of each one coming up. Hang on, I'll go write an excel thing for that.

OK so what I did was write an excel thing working out the likelihood of each of the 36 combinations, and - most importantly - WHO WOULD WIN THE JOCKEY CHALLENGE given that that was the combination that came in.

I'll list here the 36 combinations, followed by their decimal chance of occurring, and who would win if that occurred.

a b c a b c 0.16 A
a b c a b c 0.16 A
a b c a b c 0.16 A
a b c a b c 0.16 A
a b c a b c 0.16 A
a b c a b c 0.16 A
a c b a c b 0.01 A
a c b a c b 0.01 A
a c b a c b 0.01 A
a c b a c b 0.01 A
a c b a c b 0.01 A
a c b a c b 0.01 A
b a c b a c 0.111111111 B
b a c b a c 0.111111111 B
b a c b a c 0.111111111 B
b a c b a c 0.111111111 B
b a c b a c 0.111111111 B
b a c b a c 0.111111111 B
b c a b c a 0.004444444 B
b c a b c a 0.004444444 B
b c a b c a 0.004444444 B
b c a b c a 0.004444444 B
b c a b c a 0.004444444 B
b c a b c a 0.004444444 B
c a b c a b 0.00308642 C
c a b c a b 0.00308642 C
c a b c a b 0.00308642 C
c a b c a b 0.00308642 C
c a b c a b 0.00308642 C
c a b c a b 0.00308642 C
c b a c b a 0.001975309 C
c b a c b a 0.001975309 C
c b a c b a 0.001975309 C
c b a c b a 0.001975309 C
c b a c b a 0.001975309 C
c b a c b a 0.001975309 C


total decimal chance of each jockey winning the challenge is:

A - 1.02
B - 0.69
C - 0.03
Total - 1.72

And, I suppose, therefore the chance of each winning the jockey challenge is:

A - 1.02/1.72 = 0.59 (59%) odds $1.68
B - same maths - $2.48
C - same maths - $56.63

Does this seem right? As I said, this is just 40 mins of me thinking as I went.

Duritz

aah ******** just realised some cmobinations have doubled up

heaps, in fact. ignore answers. post again shortly.

No! Actually they were OK the first time!!!

Those odds SHOULD be the true odds.

Any thoughts?

actually no they ARE wrong. let me try again.

BRB

OK here's the changes

a b c a b c 0.16 A
a b c a b c 0.04 A
a b c a b c 0.133333333 A
a b c a b c 0.026666667 B
a b c a b c 0.017777778 A
a b c a b c 0.022222222 A
a c b a c b 0.04 A
a c b a c b 0.01 A
a c b a c b 0.033333333 A
a c b a c b 0.006666667 A
a c b a c b 0.004444444 C
a c b a c b 0.005555556 A
b a c b a c 0.133333333 A
b a c b a c 0.033333333 A
b a c b a c 0.111111111 B
b a c b a c 0.022222222 B
b a c b a c 0.014814815 B
b a c b a c 0.018518519 A
b c a b c a 0.026666667 B
b c a b c a 0.006666667 A
b c a b c a 0.022222222 B
b c a b c a 0.004444444 B
b c a b c a 0.002962963 B
b c a b c a 0.003703704 C
c a b c a b 0.022222222 A
c a b c a b 0.005555556 A
c a b c a b 0.018518519 A
c a b c a b 0.003703704 C
c a b c a b 0.002469136 C
c a b c a b 0.00308642 C
c b a c b a 0.017777778 A
c b a c b a 0.004444444 C
c b a c b a 0.014814815 B
c b a c b a 0.002962963 B
c b a c b a 0.001975309 C
c b a c b a 0.002469136 C


and therefore on the same maths as before

decimal chances

a - 0.72
b - 0.60
c - .13

and odds should be

A - $2.37
B - $2.85
C - $13.30

Any thoughts on the NEW answers???

(I must say my confidence is now shot)

LOL sorry posted the OLD combinations. Here's the new ones:

a b c a b c 0.16 A
a b c a c b 0.04 A
a b c b a c 0.133333333 A
a b c b c a 0.026666667 B
a b c c b a 0.017777778 A
a b c c a b 0.022222222 A
a c b a b c 0.04 A
a c b a c b 0.01 A
a c b b a c 0.033333333 A
a c b b c a 0.006666667 A
a c b c b a 0.004444444 C
a c b c a b 0.005555556 A
b a c a b c 0.133333333 A
b a c a c b 0.033333333 A
b a c b a c 0.111111111 B
b a c b c a 0.022222222 B
b a c c b a 0.014814815 B
b a c c a b 0.018518519 A
b c a a b c 0.026666667 B
b c a a c b 0.006666667 A
b c a b a c 0.022222222 B
b c a b c a 0.004444444 B
b c a c b a 0.002962963 B
b c a c a b 0.003703704 C
c a b a b c 0.022222222 A
c a b a c b 0.005555556 A
c a b b a c 0.018518519 A
c a b b c a 0.003703704 C
c a b c b a 0.002469136 C
c a b c a b 0.00308642 C
c b a a b c 0.017777778 A
c b a a c b 0.004444444 C
c b a b a c 0.014814815 B
c b a b c a 0.002962963 B
c b a c b a 0.001975309 C
c b a c a b 0.002469136 C

The odds end up the same, I used the new maths for those, so the prices are still what I said, ie

A - $2.37
B - $2.85
C - $13.30