Day 6
 

Randriantefy v Cervanova
Acapulco

I've ridden the Randriantefy wave this far so I'll try her one more time. Cervanova definitely has the game to beat the Madagascan and I'm predicting a close affair. However Randriantefy is the more experienced player and has performed more consistently over a longer period of time. Both have played well this week though Randriantefy has beaten a better class of opponent (both have won in straight sets). Cervanova's early exit from Bogata last week wasn't the best preparation making Randraintefy her first solid clay opponent this week. Neither are power hitters or big servers so expect a few service breaks.

Randriantefy $1.80 @ 5Dimes


Pennetta vs Serra Zanetti
Acapulco

Very surprised at the early prices offered on Pennetta. She's in terrific form and after a small hiccup during yesterday's first set, went on to demolish Osterloh. Perhaps the price is being driven by the H2h record which favours Zanetti 4-0 (3 of which were on clay). However the clay matches were in 1999-2000 seasons and relate to a totally different period and dynamic (as indicated by the players WTA rankings). Both players are Italian and know each others game as can be expected, but I just don't think Zanetti (ranked 118) has the current form or skill to match the 23-year-old Italian (ranked 30). When Zanetti beat Pennetta she held a higher ranking which is far from the case today. My only query would be the fatigue factor after winning in Bogata last week and competing in the singles and doubles here in Acapulco. Nevertheless, all factors point to a Pennetta win and at the price she represents tremendous value.

Pennetta $1.42 @ SportsTab

Any thoughts on Molik ($3.00) vs. Sharapova ($1.37)? I'm thinking of having a small 'recreational' wager on Molik just for aussie pride

Day 7
 

Pennetta vs Cervanova
Acapulco

The short price has made me think twice about this bet but I believe Pennetta still represents value (rated 72.6%) and that she has the momentum and game to beat Cervanova. There's no doubt Cervanova played extremely well against Randriantefy yesterday - especially during the third set. However finals pressure may count against her - she lost to Loit in her only other finals appearance (Casablanca; Clay; 2004) and has lost her four other semifinal appearances - all on clay. It can be argued that Cervanova has lifted her game and improved more than Pennetta during the week but I still rate her well below the Italian. Of course an upset is always possible and fatigue could be factor in Pennetta's performance - she complained of leg pains during her match with Osterloh - but this didn't seem to affect her yesterday. Luckily Serra Zanetti put in a meek performance in the semi final saving Pennetta from a physically drainig effort. She's also sounding very upbeat: "I like it here very much. I've always said that this is one of my favorite tournaments." Note that Cervanova won their only meeting but this was a hardcourt game in Indian Wells last year.

Pennetta $1.41 @ 5Dimes

Week 1
 

Week 1

14 Bets: 9 Wins 5 Losses
At flat stakes: Bet 14 units; Win 0.37 units; ROI 2.6%.

A below target week but always 'tricky' at this time of year moving from hard to clay (Acupulco bets). There were a few surprises during the week - Domachowska's loss but beaten by a better player on the day so no complaints. Gagliardi is my 'whinge of the week' - she lead Serra Zanetti
4-1 in the first set and was 40-0 serving for 5-1. The set went to a tie break!! Gagliardi broke Zanetti but managed to lose the set. Gagliardi was then serving first in the second set (an advantage in tennis), broke Serra Zanetti but went on to lose. This isn't a proper 'whinge' - just an opportunity to make note's about Gagliardi's consistency.

Dubai hardcourt this week - should be some good value opportunities.

Dubai - Day 1
 

Schnyder v Maleeva
Dubai

Fourteenth ranked Schnyder has - despite a few minor hiccups - had a strong start to 2005. Her 14-4 season includes good wins over Golovin and Dementieva and a straightforward win over Maleeva (rank 29) in Sydney. Schnyder's coming off some ordinary form by her standards- she didn't play particularly well in her loss to Kirilenko last week and was fortunate to
get past Na Li the week prior. However her 131/88 hardcourt record reflects her experience and ability and while the overall h2h favours Maleeva 3-2, their 2 hardcourt encounters have gone to Schnyder (the other games predated were also some years ago). The Bulgarian is certainly no easy-beat having put up a good 3-set fight against Molik on Antwerp's indoor carpet a few weeks back and another 3-set battle against the in-form Hantuchova in Qatar last week (note she lost both games). However Maleeva is more of an all rounder than a hardcourt specialist (95/88 on hard) and she lacks a decisive weapon. Her season was also interrupted by a shoulder strain earlier this month (withdrew Tokyo).

Schnyder $1.53 @ 5Dimes
(This is an early line, there maybe better prices).


Notes: A couple of players to be wary of in Dubai: Sania Mirza - last start winner but resuming from an ankle injury that's seen her offcourt for two weeks. Paola Suarez - second start back from a long spell and a bit underdone. Jelena Jankovic scratched from Qatar last week with right shoulder strain. Farina Elia's also been struggling with a right shoulder strain.

Day 1 cont'd
 

Mirza v Kostanic.
Dubai

I'm going to contradict my own advice and back Mirza who is returning from an ankle injury. She played and won in the doubles qualifying yesterday and all reports are she is free of any major problems. I watched an interview on Star and she really is a confident young player."My aim is to win the first round, I am not looking much beyond that at the moment" . . . "The preparations have been going well. My ankle still bothers me, but it is not a major concern". Her opponent Kostanic, though ranked 36th, has had a woeful start to 2005, winning only two matches - one of which was a 3-set affair against wildcard and lowly ranked Delacqua (Australian Open). Kostanic's other win was another 3 set affair against the moderate Camerin. Having said all this Kostanic isn't an easy beat, she's a competent all rounder who has been more consistent in the doubles this season. The prices are close which may reflect injury concerns but I still think there's value. Mirza said the event is very important to her momentum (she won Indian Open) and perhaps if her ankle was too problematic, she wouldn't have added the burden of playing doubles.

Mirza $1.87 @ 5Dimes

Pinnace & 5dimes
 

Hi Marco

I notice that you quote both Pinnacle & 5dimes in your WTA assessments. I only have Centrebet that does WTA and their prices are somewhat shorter than your quotes.

I take it that you actually bet with them and u r Aussie.

I have heard good things about then from other sources. Are u happy with both of them and have you withdrawn funds from them?


thanks
Karla

Day 2
 

Li vs Sugiyama
Dubai

I make the gnarly Na Li a 61.1% favourite in this match-up. Li (ranked 46 - a career high) came through qualifiers by easily beating Muller and Barna and then pipping Black in a close contest. She's young, tenacious and has made a solid start to 2005 by going 11/5 - all on hard. Moreover her record on hardcourts since 2001 is 77/18 and she clearly favours the fast conditions.
Li's ranking has also jumped over 200 places in 6 months while Sugiyama's has been slowly drifiting in the opposite direction. However Sugiyama shouldn't be underestimated because on her day, she's a proven performer. By these standards though, she's had a very poor start to 2005. Her only win in 6
matches came against Stosur last week - a match Stosur lost through sloppy play as opposed to Sugiyama playing well. Sugiyama did improve in her next match against Schiavone and though losing, took the game to 3 sets. Still Li has the momentum and form from qualifying so is in good shape to take the match.

Na Li $1.85 @ 5Dimes


Zheng vs Medina-Garrigues

Zheng (ranked 65) is another played who has performed well in qualifying this week with wins over Ruano Pascual and Camerin - both of whom have similar ratings to Medina-Garrigues(ranked 43). Zheng's had a good season thus far: she won the Hobart hardcourt with wins over Na Li, Dulko, and Asagoe (all reasonable players); she lost in the first round of Aussie Open to the classy Safina but it was a relatively close 3-setter, and she also took Mirza to 3 sets in Hyderabad (Mirza went on to win). In contrast, Medina-Garrigues has won only 1 of her 6 matches this season. To be fair she's had tough draws having come up against the likes of Pierce, Molik and Petrova. Then again Garrigues was beaten by Dulko last week - a player Zheng thrashed in the Hobart final. In short, the conditions should suit the hardcourt specialist and match-ready Zheng.

Zheng $1.47 @ 5dimes


Notes: Douchevina had a great qualifying win over young superstar Ivanovic and may well surprise Dechy who withdrew from Qatar last week with an illness. Always hard coming in cold - but Douchevina's too inconsistent to bet on. Similarly Likhovtseva is way too short in the market - she also withdrew
at late notice with an illness last week. Sfar is capable and appears highly motivated during interviews this week. Would like to play Bovina at the $1.70 but she's only third start back from long injury lay-off so question mark over her match fitness(h2h 7-2 Bovina).

Karla909,

I don't think he's paying any attention to you.

karla

My oversight - was in a hurry and missed your post. Apologies.
5Dimes and Pinnacle best 'outs' for tennis and I've had no problems.
Will take large bets - unlike some - and seem to have solid reputations.
And yes, I'm in Australia.