thanks sportz, very helpful

Desi, i had success the last couple of seasons rating each player on a team out of 10 in their position and adding them together, and backing the highest rated team and got some good results with a few outsiders getting up, havent done it on round 1 before because its the first game of the year,but i'll have a go

Bulldogs 123
Dragons 117

Eels 122
W/tigers 117

Panthers 126
Sharks 121

Roosters 129
Rabbits 114

Sea Eagles 122
Warriors 117

Storm 122
Knights 115

Cowboys 125
Broncos 123

That gives me a winning margin, but this round i think the buldogs game will be a blowout as will the storm game with all the knights missing, but the rabbits give the roosters a hard time for about 65 - 70 minutes so i think it will be a lot closer than i rated

Well done Goldmember. Yeah, it's sure hard doing ratings for the first round isn't it?

Desi, this is a great place for stats:

http://stats.rleague.com/rl/rl_index.html
http://stats.rleague.com/afl/afl_index.html

Sportz, it sure is, thats why i use to let 2 or 3 rounds go before i bet, but this time i think exotic bets could be better value until the teams they settle, the roosters are one of the fittest teams around but always stuggle in round 1, the sharks are very slow starters, 0/6 in 2003 and 1/5 in 2004

reply to desi
 

After my reply yesterday I had another thought.

In sports betting it is necessary to also analyse the opposition as well as your pick. I find that finding a good loser is just as important as finding a good winner. For example my favourite tennis player in 2003 was Andre Sa. You probably never heard of him. He was ordinary on grass and absolutely useless on everything else. Anyway he lost 12 straight times for me.

With respect to Excel vs Access, I am predjudiced towards Excel. But, I feel to start off Excel is easier cause you just have to type in and its easy to put in totals and to sort things in different sequences. Also you can convert to Access later.

Good luck
Karla

For the same reasons, Michael Campbell has been my favourite golfer for the last 6 months. He was ordinary on grass also, which isnt good for a golfer.

I went to lengths because gambling is what I do :D (sportsbetting & poker).

Sportz basically said how I approach it. Created a database in excel and use a formula to crunch the numbers and pump out the spreads. I will bet on the picks that don't seem like the 'sharp' side, simply because overall the picks have shown to be very profitable over a good sample.

And I don't aim for 60% at $1.95 sportz, 57.5% at $1.90 is what I'm hoping for (it's done better than this so far). I'd really be happy with 55% at $1.90 (enough to double the bankroll of an aggressive bettor).

It is pretty difficult to just create your own ratings/system. Look at things like home advantage, travel, form, injuries, motivation, matchups etc. You also have to consider things outside of the game itself like public opinion, who the money will come in on etc. All you have to do is be sharper than the bookies. To beat them you either need more info, or just be able to process the same info more effectively.

Look for things like an in form home dogs vs a popular public team.

Underdogs are generally a better bet than a fave.
Home dogs are usually the best bet (compared to away dogs, away faves and home faves).
Away faves are usually the worst option.

In NRL, underdogs have performed very well over the last few years.

In AFL, solid home faves and home dogs have performed well.

These aren't necessarily profitable trends, but this is the sort of stuff to look at.

Shouldnt really be very hard to rate at all in the NRL. Very rarely do first grade footballers lose too much over an off season due to the intense training and 5-6 week break per year. Dont worry too much about stats, but concentrate on momentum, suspensions and home ground advantages for good results.Combinations in the halves is very important and look for the good frontrowers of sides for the power plays.

Good Luck.

Don't listen to him Desi,he always says that!
He picks OK.

Good morning all...sorry just recuperating from a angiogram so have been out last couple of days...

Thanks for the support and great info and advice all of you...will add stats stuff to the rest of my list...

I made an early ladder prediction for NRL (what was I thinking...hahaha) which affected my poor picks for 1st round (even though early days) yikes got my ass kicked so am revisiting and will look at games initially on round to round basis...

Have had some success on NRL based on what I have observed and my knowledge of the game but have probably lost in the long run cos I have been looking to make money on hunches and not what was of value...in all my gambling exploits I would have to admit to poor discipline and bad bet selections...Seearay, you are right when you say dont try to bet to make up for previous losses cos this has been my downfall...I have no ambitions to be a professional gambler (aint got the wherewithal or balls) but want to be able to enhance my enjoyment of watching the sports and knowing that I backed a solid winner consistently...also thoroughly enjoy my discussions with you guys-informative, entertaining and supportive...

SO cheers to all and heres hoping that I achieve discipline, consistency and
some $$$$ for the coffers!!!

Desi